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Key Findings

California voters accept now received their mail ballots, and the Nov viii general election has entered its final stage. Amid rising prices and economic uncertainty—also equally deep partisan divisions over social and political issues—Californians are processing a slap-up deal of information to assist them choose country constitutional officers and state legislators and to make policy decisions nigh state propositions. The 2022 midterm election also features a closely divided Congress, with the likelihood that a few races in California may make up one’s mind which political party controls the US House.

These are amidst the key findings of a statewide survey on state and national issues conducted from October 14 to 23 past the Public Policy Institute of California:

  • Many Californians have negative perceptions of their personal finances and the US economy.
    Lxx-six percent rate the nation’southward economy equally “non so skilful” or “poor.” Thirty-9 percentage say their finances are “worse off” today than a year ago. Forty-vii percent say that things in California are going in the right direction, while 33 percent think things in the US are going in the right management; partisans differ in their overall outlook.→

  • figure - Californians name jobs, the economy, and inflation as the top issue

    Among likely voters, 55 percent would vote for Gavin Newsom and 36 percent would vote for Brian Dahle if the governor’south ballot were today. Partisans are securely divided in their choices. Sixty percent are very or fairly closely following news almost the governor’s race. Sixty-ii percentage are satisfied with the candidate choices in the governor’due south election.→



  • When likely voters are read the election title and labels, 34 percent would vote yes on Proposition 26 (sports betting at tribal casinos), 26 percent would vote yes on Suggestion 27 (online sports gambling),
    and 41 percent would vote yeah on Proposition xxx (reducing greenhouse gases). Most likely voters say they are non personally interested in sports betting, and 48 pct call back it would be a “bad matter” if it became legal in the state. Fewer than half of likely voters say the vote outcome of Propositions 26, 27, or xxx is very important to them.→



  • 50-six pct of likely voters would support the Democratic candidate in their Us House race if the election were today. Sixty-i percent say the issue of abortion rights is very important in their vote for Congress this year; Democrats are far more likely than Republicans or independents to hold this view. About half are “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about voting for Congress this year; 54 per centum of Republicans and Democrats, and 41 percent of independents, are highly enthusiastic this year.→
  • Forty-five per centum of Californians and 40 percent of probable voters are satisfied with the fashion that republic is working in the United States.
    Republicans are far less probable than Democrats and independents to hold this positive view. There is rare partisan consensus on i topic: majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and independents are pessimistic that Americans with dissimilar political views can still come together and work out their differences.→
  • Majorities of California adults and likely voters approve of Governor Gavin Newsom and President Joe Biden. Virtually four in x or more California adults and likely voters approve of US Senator Dianne Feinstein and Usa Senator Alex Padilla. These approving ratings vary across partisan groups. Blessing of the state legislature is college than approval of the US Congress.→


Overall Mood

With less than two weeks to go until what is set to be a highly consequential midterm election, California adults are divided on whether the state is generally headed in the right direction (47%) or wrong management (48%); a majority of probable voters (54%) think the state is headed in the wrong direction (43% right direction). Like shares held this view last month (wrong direction: 44% adults, 49% probable voters; right direction: 50% adults, 48% likely voters). Today, there is a broad partisan divide: 7 in ten Democrats are optimistic about the direction of the country, while 91 percent of Republicans and 59 percent of independents are pessimistic. Majorities of residents in the Central Valley and Orange/San Diego say the land is going in the wrong direction, while a majority in the San Francisco Bay Area say right direction; adults elsewhere are divided. Across demographic groups, Californians ages 18 to 34 (60%), Asian Americans (52%), college graduates (52%), renters (52%), and women (52%) are the only groups in which a majority are optimistic about California’s management.

Californians are much more than pessimistic virtually the direction of the country than they are about the direction of the state. Solid majorities of adults (62%) and likely voters (71%) say the United States is going in the wrong management, and majorities take held this view since September 2021. Ane in three or fewer adults (33%) and likely voters (25%) think the country is going in the right direction. Majorities across all demographic groups and partisan groups, as well as beyond regions, are pessimistic about the management of the Us.

The state of the economic system and aggrandizement are likely to play a disquisitional role in the upcoming election, and about four in ten adults (39%) and likely voters (43%) say they and their family are worse off financially than they were a yr ago. Similar shares say they are financially in about the aforementioned spot (43% adults, 44% likely voters). The share who experience they are worse off has risen slightly among likely voters since May, only is similar among adults (37% adults, 36% probable voters). Fewer than two in ten Californians say they are ameliorate off than they were one year ago (17% adults, 13% likely voters). A broad partisan carve up exists: most Democrats and independents say their financial situation is about the same as a year agone, while solid majorities of Republicans say they are worse off. Regionally, about half in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles say they are about the aforementioned, while half in the Fundamental Valley say they are worse off; residents elsewhere are divided between beingness worse off and the aforementioned. Across demographic groups, pluralities say they are either financially virtually the same every bit last year or worse off, with the exception of African Americans (51% near the same, 33% worse off, 16% better off) and Asian Americans (51% about the same, 27% worse off, 20% amend off). The shares saying they are worse off decline as educational attainment increases.

With persistent inflation and concerns about a possible recession in the future, an overwhelming majority of Californians believe the US economy is in non and so skilful (43% adults, 40% likely voters) or poor (33% adults, 36% likely voters) shape. About a quarter of adults (iii% excellent, 20% practiced) and likely voters (2% excellent, 23% good) feel positively most the national economy. Strong majorities across partisan groups experience negatively, only Republicans and independents are much more than likely than Democrats to say the economic system is in poor shape. Solid majorities across the country’south major regions likewise equally all demographic groups say the economic system is in non and then good or poor shape. In a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll, 24 percent (3% excellent, 21% good) of adults nationwide felt positively almost the United states of america economy, while 74 pct (36% non so expert, 38% poor) expressed negative views.


Gubernatorial Ballot

Half-dozen in ten likely voters say they are following news about the 2022 governor’s race very (25%) or fairly (35%) closely—a share that has risen from half just a month ago (17% very, 33% fairly). This finding is somewhat like to October 2018, when 68 pct said this (28% very, twoscore% closely) a month before the previous gubernatorial ballot. Today, majorities across partisan, demographic, and regional groups say they are following news about the gubernatorial ballot either very or fairly closely. The shares saying they are following the news very closely is highest among residents in Republican districts (39%), Republicans (thirty%), whites (29%), and adults with incomes of $forty,000 to $79,999 (29%). Older likely voters (27%) are slightly more than likely than younger likely voters (21%) to say they are post-obit the news closely.

Democratic incumbent Gavin Newsom is ahead of Republican Brian Dahle (55% to 36%) among likely voters, while few say they would not vote, would vote for neither, or don’t know who they would vote for in the governor’south race. The share supporting the reelection of the governor was like a calendar month ago (58% Newsom, 31% Dahle). Today, Newsom enjoys the support of about Democrats (91%), while well-nigh Republicans (86%) support Dahle; Newsom has an edge over Dahle among independent likely voters (47% Newsom, 37% Dahle). Across the state’south regions, ii in three in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles support Newsom, equally practice virtually half in the Inland Empire and Orange/San Diego; probable voters in the Fundamental Valley are split up. Newsom leads in all demographic groups, with the exception of men (45% Newsom, 44% Dahle) and those with a high school diploma only (46% Newsom, 49% Dahle). The share supporting Newsom grows as educational attainment increases (46% loftier school only, 56% some higher, 60% higher graduates), while it decreases with ascension income (64% less than $xl,000, 56% $40,000 to $79,999, 52% $eighty,000 or more).

A solid majority of likely voters (62%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the November 8 election, while well-nigh three in x (32%) are not satisfied. Shares expressing satisfaction have increased somewhat from a month ago (53%) and were similar prior to the 2018 gubernatorial election (lx% October 2018). Today, a solid majority of Democrats (79%) and independents (61%) say they are satisfied, compared to fewer than half of Republicans (44%). Majorities across demographic groups say they are satisfied, and notably, women (68%) are more likely than men (56%) to say this. Majorities beyond the land’s regions say they are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the upcoming gubernatorial election.


State Propositions 26, 27, and xxx

In the upcoming November 8 election, there volition be seven state propositions for voters. Due to time constraints, our survey merely asked nearly three ballot measures: Propositions 26, 27, and 30. For each, we read the proffer number, election, and ballot label. Two of the country ballot measures were also included in the September survey (Propositions 27 and 30), while Suggestion 26 was not.

If the election were held today, 34 percent of likely voters would vote “yes,” 57 percent would vote “no,” and 9 percent are unsure of how they would vote on Suggestion 26—Allows In-Person Roulette, Dice, Game, Sports Wagering on Tribal Lands. This measure would allow in-person sports betting at racetracks and tribal casinos, requiring that racetracks and casinos offering sports betting brand certain payments to the land to support state regulatory costs. Information technology likewise allows roulette and die games at tribal casinos and adds a new way to enforce certain state gambling laws. There is partisan understanding on Prop 26: fewer than four in ten Democrats, Republicans, and independents would vote “yep.” Moreover, less than a bulk across all regions and demographic groups—with the exception of likely voters ages 18 to 44 (51% yeah, 44% no)—would vote “yep.”

If the election were held today, 26 per centum of probable voters would vote “yes,” 67 percent would vote “no,” and 8 percent are unsure of how they would vote on Proposition 27—Allows Online and Mobile Sports Wagering Outside Tribal Lands. This citizens’ initiative would allow Indian tribes and affiliated businesses to operate online and mobile sports wagering outside tribal lands. Strong majorities across partisan groups would vote “no” on Prop 27. The share voting “yeah” has decreased since a month ago (34% September). Today, fewer than three in ten across partisan groups would vote “yes” on Prop 27. Moreover, fewer than four in ten across regions, gender, racial/ethnic, instruction, and income groups would vote “yes.” Likely voters ages eighteen to 44 (41%) are far more likely than older probable voters ages 45 and higher up (xix%) to say they would vote “yes.”

If the ballot were held today, 41 percent of likely voters would vote “yes,” 52 percent would vote “no,” and 7 pct are unsure of how they would vote on Proposition 30—Provides Funding for Programs to Reduce Air Pollution and Prevent Wildfires past Increasing Tax on Personal Income over $2 Million. This citizens’ initiative would increase taxes on Californians earning more than than $2 million annually and allocate that tax acquirement to nix-emission vehicle purchase incentives, vehicle charging stations, and wildfire prevention. The share proverb “yes” on Prop 30 has decreased from 55 per centum in our September survey (note: since September, Governor Newsom has been featured in “no on Prop 30” commercials). Today, dissimilar Prop 26 and Prop 27, partisan opinions are divided on Prop 30: 61 percentage of Democrats would vote “yes,” compared to far fewer Republicans (xv%) and independents (38%). Across regions, and among men and women, support falls short of a bulk (36% men, 45% women). Fewer than half across racial/ethnic groups say they would vote “yes” (39% whites, 42% Latinos, 46% other racial/indigenous groups). Merely over half of probable voters with incomes nether $40,000 (52%) would vote “yes,” compared to fewer in higher-income groups (42% $40,000 to $79,999, 36% $80,000 or more). Most half of likely voters ages 18 to 44 (49%) would vote “yes,” compared to 37 pct of older likely voters.

Fewer than half of likely voters say the outcome of each of these state propositions is very important to them. Today, 21 percent of likely voters say the event of Prop 26 is very important, 31 percentage say the upshot of Prop 27 is very important, and 42 percent say the issue of Prop 30 is very important. The shares saying the outcomes are very of import to them have remained similar to a calendar month agone for Prop 27 (29%) and Prop xxx (42%). Today, when it comes to the importance of the effect of Prop 26, one in four or fewer across partisan groups say information technology is very important to them. Most one in 3 beyond partisan groups say the upshot of Prop 27 is very of import to them. Fewer than half beyond partisan groups say the outcome of Prop 30 is very of import to them.


Congressional Elections

When asked how they would vote if the 2022 election for the United states of america House of Representatives were held today, 56 per centum of likely voters say they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate, while 39 percent would vote for or lean toward the Republican candidate. In September, a similar share of probable voters preferred the Democratic candidate (sixty% Democrat/lean Democrat, 34% Republican/lean Republican). Today, overwhelming majorities of partisans support their party’s candidate, while independents are divided (l% Democrat/lean Democrat, 44% Republican/lean Republican). Democratic candidates are preferred by a 26-point margin in Autonomous-held districts, while Republican candidates are preferred by a 23-point margin in Republican-held districts. In the ten competitive California districts as defined by the Cook Political Report, the Democratic candidate is preferred past a 22-point margin (54% to 32%).

Abortion is another prominent issue in this ballot. When asked near the importance of abortion rights, 61 percent of likely voters say the event is very important in determining their vote for Congress and another 20 pct say it is somewhat important; just 17 per centum say it is not too or not at all important. Among partisans, an overwhelming majority of Democrats (78%) and 55 per centum of independents say it is very of import, compared to 43 per centum of Republicans. Majorities across regions and all demographic groups—with the exception of men (49% very important)—say abortion rights are very important when making their choice among candidates for Congress.

With the controlling party in Congress hanging in the residue, 51 percent of likely voters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress this year; another 29 percent are somewhat enthusiastic while xix percent are either not too or not at all enthusiastic. In October 2018 earlier the last midterm election, a similar 53 percent of likely voters were extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress (25% extremely, 28% very, 28% somewhat, x% not too, viii% not at all). Today, Democrats and Republicans have nigh equal levels of enthusiasm, while independents are much less probable to be extremely or very enthusiastic. Half or more across regions are at to the lowest degree very enthusiastic, with the exceptions of likely voters in Los Angeles (44%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (43%). At least half across demographic groups are highly enthusiastic, with the exceptions of probable voters earning $40,000 to $79,999 annually (48%), women (47%), Latinos (43%), those with a high school diploma or less (42%), renters (42%), and xviii- to 44-twelvemonth-olds (37%).


Democracy and the Political Split

As Californians prepare to vote in the upcoming midterm election, fewer than half of adults and likely voters are satisfied with the way democracy is working in the U.s.—and few are very satisfied. Satisfaction was higher in our February survey when 53 percent of adults and 48 percent of likely voters were satisfied with democracy in America. Today, half of Democrats and virtually four in ten independents are satisfied, compared to near one in five Republicans. Notably, four in ten Republicans are not at all satisfied. Beyond regions, one-half of residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (52%) and the Inland Empire (50%) are satisfied, compared to fewer elsewhere. Across demographic groups, fewer than one-half are satisfied, with the exception of Latinos (56%), those with a high schoolhouse degree or less (55%), and those making less than $twoscore,000 (53%).

In addition to the lack of satisfaction with the way democracy is working, Californians are divided about whether Americans of different political positions can all the same come up together and work out their differences. Forty-nine percent are optimistic, while 46 pct are pessimistic. Optimism has been similar in more than recent years, only has decreased vii points since we first asked this question in September 2017 (56%). In September 2020, but before the 2020 general ballot, Californians were also divided (47% optimistic, 49% pessimistic).

Today, in a rare moment of bipartisan agreement, most four in ten Democrats, Republicans, and independents are optimistic that Americans of different political views will be able to come together. Across regions, near half in Orange/San Diego, the Inland Empire, and the San Francisco Bay Expanse are optimistic. Across demographic groups, only the following groups have a majority or more who are optimistic: African Americans and Latinos (61% each), those with a high school diploma or less (63%), and those with household incomes nether $40,000 (61%). Notably, in 2017, half or more than across parties, regions, and demographic groups were optimistic.


Blessing Ratings

With about two weeks to go before Governor Newsom’s bid for reelection, a bulk of Californians (54%) and likely voters (52%) approve of the mode he is handling his task, while fewer disapprove (33% adults, 45% likely voters). Blessing was virtually identical in September (52% adults, 55% likely voters) and has been 50 pct or more than since January 2020. Today, near eight in ten Democrats—compared to about half of independents and about one in ten Republicans—approve of Governor Newsom. Half or more across regions corroborate of Newsom, except in the Central Valley (42%). Across demographic groups, near one-half or more approve of how Governor Newsom is treatment his job.

With all 80 land associates positions and half of country senate seats up for election, fewer than half of adults (49%) and probable voters (43%) approve of the fashion that the California Legislature is handling its task. Views are deeply divided along partisan lines; approval is highest in the San Francisco Bay Area and everyman in Orange/San Diego. Nigh half across racial/indigenous groups approve, and blessing is much higher among younger Californians.

Majorities of California adults (53%) and probable voters (52%) approve of the mode President Biden is handling his task, while fewer disapprove (43% adults, 47% likely voters). Approval is similar to September (53% adults and likely voters), and Biden’s blessing rating among adults has been at fifty percent or higher since we offset asked this question in January 2021. Today, about eight in ten Democrats approve of Biden’s job performance, compared to about four in 10 independents and 1 in ten Republicans. Approving is college in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles than in the Inland Empire, Orangish/San Diego, and the Central Valley. About half or more across demographic groups approve of President Biden, with the exception of those with some college education (44%).

Blessing of Congress remains low, with fewer than 4 in x adults (37%) and likely voters (29%) approving. Approval of Congress amongst adults has been below 40 percent for all of 2022 after seeing a brief run above 40 percent for all of 2021. Democrats are far more probable than Republicans to approve of Congress. Fewer than half beyond regions and demographic groups approve of Congress.

US Senator Alex Padilla is on the California ballot twice this November—in one case for the residuum of Vice President Harris’s term and once for reelection. Senator Padilla has the blessing of 46 percent of adults and 48 percent of likely voters (adults: 26% disapprove, 29% don’t know; probable voters: 31% disapprove, 22% don’t know). Approving in March was at 44 percent for adults and 39 percent for likely voters. Today, Padilla’s approval rating is much higher amongst Democrats than independents and Republicans. Across regions, about half in the San Francisco Bay Expanse, Los Angeles, and the Inland Empire approve of the Usa senator, compared to four in x in Orange/San Diego and 1 in three in the Central Valley. Across demographic groups, about half or more than approve among women, younger adults, African Americans, Asian Americans, and Latinos. Views are similar beyond education and income groups, with just fewer than half approving.

US Senator Dianne Feinstein—who is not on the California ballot this Nov—has the approving of 41 percent of adults and likely voters (adults: 42% disapprove, 17% don’t know; likely voters: 52% disapprove, 7% don’t know). Approval in March was at 41 percent for adults and 36 percent for likely voters. Today, Feinstein’s approval rating is far college among Democrats and independents than Republicans. Across regions, blessing reaches a majority only in the San Francisco Bay Surface area. Across demographic groups, approval reaches a majority simply among African Americans

Topics

2022 Ballot COVID-19 Economy Wellness & Safe Cyberspace Political Landscape Statewide Survey

Source: https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-october-2022/

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