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Key Findings

California voters take now received their mail service ballots, and the November viii full general election has entered its terminal stage. Amid rising prices and economic uncertainty—equally well equally deep partisan divisions over social and political issues—Californians are processing a great deal of information to assistance them choose state constitutional officers and land legislators and to make policy decisions about state propositions. The 2022 midterm election also features a closely divided Congress, with the likelihood that a few races in California may determine which political party controls the US Business firm.

These are amid the primal findings of a statewide survey on country and national issues conducted from October 14 to 23 past the Public Policy Institute of California:

  • Many Californians have negative perceptions of their personal finances and the US economy.
    70-six percent rate the nation’due south economic system every bit “not and then good” or “poor.” Thirty-nine percent say their finances are “worse off” today than a twelvemonth ago. Twoscore-seven percent say that things in California are going in the right management, while 33 percent think things in the US are going in the right direction; partisans differ in their overall outlook.→

  • figure - Californians name jobs, the economy, and inflation as the top issue

    Among likely voters, 55 percent would vote for Gavin Newsom and 36 percent would vote for Brian Dahle if the governor’s election were today. Partisans are deeply divided in their choices. Sixty percent are very or fairly closely following news almost the governor’south race. 60-two percent are satisfied with the candidate choices in the governor’s election.→



  • When likely voters are read the ballot title and labels, 34 percent would vote yes on Proffer 26 (sports betting at tribal casinos), 26 percentage would vote yep on Proposition 27 (online sports gambling),
    and 41 percent would vote aye on Proposition 30 (reducing greenhouse gases). Near likely voters say they are not personally interested in sports betting, and 48 pct think it would exist a “bad thing” if it became legal in the state. Fewer than half of probable voters say the vote issue of Propositions 26, 27, or xxx is very important to them.→



  • L-six pct of likely voters would support the Democratic candidate in their U.s.a. Firm race if the election were today. Sixty-one percent say the outcome of abortion rights is very of import in their vote for Congress this year; Democrats are far more likely than Republicans or independents to hold this view. About one-half are “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about voting for Congress this year; 54 pct of Republicans and Democrats, and 41 percent of independents, are highly enthusiastic this yr.→
  • Forty-five percent of Californians and 40 percent of likely voters are satisfied with the mode that republic is working in the Us.
    Republicans are far less likely than Democrats and independents to concord this positive view. In that location is rare partisan consensus on one topic: majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and independents are pessimistic that Americans with dissimilar political views can still come together and work out their differences.→
  • Majorities of California adults and probable voters corroborate of Governor Gavin Newsom and President Joe Biden. About 4 in ten or more California adults and likely voters approve of Usa Senator Dianne Feinstein and The states Senator Alex Padilla. These approving ratings vary across partisan groups. Approval of the state legislature is higher than approving of the U.s. Congress.→


Overall Mood

With less than two weeks to go until what is set to be a highly consequential midterm ballot, California adults are divided on whether the state is generally headed in the right management (47%) or wrong direction (48%); a majority of probable voters (54%) recollect the land is headed in the wrong direction (43% right direction). Like shares held this view last month (incorrect direction: 44% adults, 49% probable voters; right management: 50% adults, 48% likely voters). Today, there is a broad partisan divide: seven in ten Democrats are optimistic virtually the direction of the state, while 91 per centum of Republicans and 59 per centum of independents are pessimistic. Majorities of residents in the Central Valley and Orange/San Diego say the state is going in the wrong direction, while a bulk in the San Francisco Bay Area say right direction; adults elsewhere are divided. Across demographic groups, Californians ages 18 to 34 (60%), Asian Americans (52%), higher graduates (52%), renters (52%), and women (52%) are the only groups in which a majority are optimistic about California’south direction.

Californians are much more than pessimistic nigh the management of the country than they are most the direction of the country. Solid majorities of adults (62%) and likely voters (71%) say the United States is going in the incorrect direction, and majorities have held this view since September 2021. One in three or fewer adults (33%) and likely voters (25%) think the country is going in the right direction. Majorities across all demographic groups and partisan groups, as well as across regions, are pessimistic about the management of the United States.

The land of the economic system and inflation are likely to play a critical function in the upcoming ballot, and almost 4 in x adults (39%) and probable voters (43%) say they and their family are worse off financially than they were a year ago. Similar shares say they are financially in about the same spot (43% adults, 44% likely voters). The share who experience they are worse off has risen slightly amid probable voters since May, simply is similar among adults (37% adults, 36% likely voters). Fewer than ii in ten Californians say they are better off than they were one year ago (17% adults, 13% probable voters). A wide partisan dissever exists: most Democrats and independents say their fiscal situation is about the same as a twelvemonth agone, while solid majorities of Republicans say they are worse off. Regionally, nearly half in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles say they are about the aforementioned, while half in the Central Valley say they are worse off; residents elsewhere are divided between being worse off and the same. Across demographic groups, pluralities say they are either financially almost the same as last year or worse off, with the exception of African Americans (51% about the same, 33% worse off, sixteen% improve off) and Asian Americans (51% about the same, 27% worse off, xx% ameliorate off). The shares saying they are worse off decline as educational attainment increases.

With persistent inflation and concerns about a possible recession in the time to come, an overwhelming majority of Californians believe the US economy is in not and so adept (43% adults, 40% likely voters) or poor (33% adults, 36% likely voters) shape. Virtually a quarter of adults (three% excellent, 20% good) and likely voters (2% excellent, 23% practiced) feel positively most the national economic system. Stiff majorities across partisan groups feel negatively, only Republicans and independents are much more than likely than Democrats to say the economic system is in poor shape. Solid majorities across the country’s major regions as well equally all demographic groups say the economy is in not then adept or poor shape. In a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll, 24 pct (three% excellent, 21% skillful) of adults nationwide felt positively about the U.s. economy, while 74 pct (36% not so expert, 38% poor) expressed negative views.


Gubernatorial Election

Six in 10 likely voters say they are following news well-nigh the 2022 governor’s race very (25%) or fairly (35%) closely—a share that has risen from half merely a month ago (17% very, 33% adequately). This finding is somewhat similar to Oct 2018, when 68 percent said this (28% very, xl% closely) a month before the previous gubernatorial election. Today, majorities across partisan, demographic, and regional groups say they are post-obit news about the gubernatorial ballot either very or adequately closely. The shares saying they are post-obit the news very closely is highest among residents in Republican districts (39%), Republicans (xxx%), whites (29%), and adults with incomes of $xl,000 to $79,999 (29%). Older probable voters (27%) are slightly more likely than younger likely voters (21%) to say they are following the news closely.

Democratic incumbent Gavin Newsom is alee of Republican Brian Dahle (55% to 36%) among probable voters, while few say they would not vote, would vote for neither, or don’t know who they would vote for in the governor’s race. The share supporting the reelection of the governor was similar a month ago (58% Newsom, 31% Dahle). Today, Newsom enjoys the support of most Democrats (91%), while most Republicans (86%) support Dahle; Newsom has an edge over Dahle amongst contained likely voters (47% Newsom, 37% Dahle). Across the land’s regions, ii in three in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles support Newsom, every bit do virtually half in the Inland Empire and Orange/San Diego; likely voters in the Central Valley are split. Newsom leads in all demographic groups, with the exception of men (45% Newsom, 44% Dahle) and those with a high schoolhouse diploma but (46% Newsom, 49% Dahle). The share supporting Newsom grows as educational attainment increases (46% loftier school only, 56% some college, 60% higher graduates), while it decreases with rising income (64% less than $40,000, 56% $twoscore,000 to $79,999, 52% $80,000 or more).

A solid majority of likely voters (62%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the November eight election, while nearly 3 in 10 (32%) are non satisfied. Shares expressing satisfaction have increased somewhat from a calendar month ago (53%) and were similar prior to the 2018 gubernatorial election (lx% Oct 2018). Today, a solid bulk of Democrats (79%) and independents (61%) say they are satisfied, compared to fewer than one-half of Republicans (44%). Majorities beyond demographic groups say they are satisfied, and notably, women (68%) are more likely than men (56%) to say this. Majorities across the state’south regions say they are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the upcoming gubernatorial election.


Country Propositions 26, 27, and 30

In the upcoming November eight ballot, there will be seven state propositions for voters. Due to time constraints, our survey only asked nigh three ballot measures: Propositions 26, 27, and 30. For each, nosotros read the proffer number, election, and ballot characterization. Ii of the state ballot measures were too included in the September survey (Propositions 27 and 30), while Proposition 26 was not.

If the election were held today, 34 pct of probable voters would vote “yep,” 57 percent would vote “no,” and 9 pct are unsure of how they would vote on Proffer 26—Allows In-Person Roulette, Die, Game, Sports Wagering on Tribal Lands. This measure out would allow in-person sports betting at racetracks and tribal casinos, requiring that racetracks and casinos offering sports betting make certain payments to the state to support land regulatory costs. It besides allows roulette and dice games at tribal casinos and adds a new way to enforce certain state gambling laws. There is partisan understanding on Prop 26: fewer than four in 10 Democrats, Republicans, and independents would vote “yes.” Moreover, less than a majority across all regions and demographic groups—with the exception of probable voters ages 18 to 44 (51% aye, 44% no)—would vote “aye.”

If the ballot were held today, 26 percent of probable voters would vote “aye,” 67 percent would vote “no,” and viii pct are unsure of how they would vote on Proffer 27—Allows Online and Mobile Sports Wagering Exterior Tribal Lands. This citizens’ initiative would permit Indian tribes and affiliated businesses to operate online and mobile sports wagering outside tribal lands. Strong majorities across partisan groups would vote “no” on Prop 27. The share voting “yep” has decreased since a month ago (34% September). Today, fewer than three in x across partisan groups would vote “yep” on Prop 27. Moreover, fewer than four in ten across regions, gender, racial/ethnic, education, and income groups would vote “yes.” Likely voters ages 18 to 44 (41%) are far more than likely than older likely voters ages 45 and above (nineteen%) to say they would vote “aye.”

If the election were held today, 41 percent of likely voters would vote “yes,” 52 percent would vote “no,” and vii percent are unsure of how they would vote on Proposition 30—Provides Funding for Programs to Reduce Air Pollution and Prevent Wildfires by Increasing Tax on Personal Income over $ii Million. This citizens’ initiative would increase taxes on Californians earning more $2 1000000 annually and classify that revenue enhancement revenue to nix-emission vehicle buy incentives, vehicle charging stations, and wildfire prevention. The share saying “yes” on Prop thirty has decreased from 55 percentage in our September survey (note: since September, Governor Newsom has been featured in “no on Prop 30” commercials). Today, unlike Prop 26 and Prop 27, partisan opinions are divided on Prop xxx: 61 percent of Democrats would vote “yes,” compared to far fewer Republicans (xv%) and independents (38%). Across regions, and amid men and women, support falls curt of a majority (36% men, 45% women). Fewer than half beyond racial/indigenous groups say they would vote “yeah” (39% whites, 42% Latinos, 46% other racial/indigenous groups). Simply over half of likely voters with incomes under $40,000 (52%) would vote “yep,” compared to fewer in higher-income groups (42% $40,000 to $79,999, 36% $80,000 or more than). Nearly one-half of likely voters ages 18 to 44 (49%) would vote “yeah,” compared to 37 per centum of older likely voters.

Fewer than half of probable voters say the outcome of each of these state propositions is very important to them. Today, 21 percent of likely voters say the outcome of Prop 26 is very important, 31 percent say the outcome of Prop 27 is very of import, and 42 per centum say the event of Prop 30 is very important. The shares saying the outcomes are very important to them take remained similar to a month ago for Prop 27 (29%) and Prop 30 (42%). Today, when it comes to the importance of the outcome of Prop 26, one in four or fewer across partisan groups say it is very important to them. Well-nigh ane in three across partisan groups say the issue of Prop 27 is very important to them. Fewer than half across partisan groups say the effect of Prop 30 is very important to them.


Congressional Elections

When asked how they would vote if the 2022 election for the US Firm of Representatives were held today, 56 percentage of probable voters say they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate, while 39 pct would vote for or lean toward the Republican candidate. In September, a similar share of likely voters preferred the Democratic candidate (60% Democrat/lean Democrat, 34% Republican/lean Republican). Today, overwhelming majorities of partisans support their party’s candidate, while independents are divided (50% Democrat/lean Democrat, 44% Republican/lean Republican). Democratic candidates are preferred by a 26-indicate margin in Democratic-held districts, while Republican candidates are preferred by a 23-bespeak margin in Republican-held districts. In the ten competitive California districts as divers by the Cook Political Report, the Democratic candidate is preferred by a 22-point margin (54% to 32%).

Abortion is another prominent issue in this election. When asked well-nigh the importance of abortion rights, 61 percent of likely voters say the issue is very important in determining their vote for Congress and another 20 pct say it is somewhat important; just 17 percent say information technology is not too or not at all important. Among partisans, an overwhelming bulk of Democrats (78%) and 55 percent of independents say it is very important, compared to 43 per centum of Republicans. Majorities across regions and all demographic groups—with the exception of men (49% very important)—say ballgame rights are very important when making their choice among candidates for Congress.

With the decision-making party in Congress hanging in the balance, 51 percent of likely voters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress this year; another 29 per centum are somewhat enthusiastic while 19 per centum are either not as well or not at all enthusiastic. In October 2018 earlier the last midterm election, a similar 53 percent of likely voters were extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress (25% extremely, 28% very, 28% somewhat, 10% not too, 8% not at all). Today, Democrats and Republicans have about equal levels of enthusiasm, while independents are much less likely to exist extremely or very enthusiastic. Half or more across regions are at least very enthusiastic, with the exceptions of likely voters in Los Angeles (44%) and the San Francisco Bay Surface area (43%). At least one-half across demographic groups are highly enthusiastic, with the exceptions of probable voters earning $40,000 to $79,999 annually (48%), women (47%), Latinos (43%), those with a high school diploma or less (42%), renters (42%), and eighteen- to 44-twelvemonth-olds (37%).


Commonwealth and the Political Dissever

As Californians gear up to vote in the upcoming midterm ballot, fewer than half of adults and likely voters are satisfied with the way democracy is working in the United states of america—and few are very satisfied. Satisfaction was higher in our February survey when 53 pct of adults and 48 percentage of likely voters were satisfied with democracy in America. Today, half of Democrats and well-nigh four in ten independents are satisfied, compared to virtually 1 in five Republicans. Notably, four in 10 Republicans are not at all satisfied. Across regions, half of residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (52%) and the Inland Empire (50%) are satisfied, compared to fewer elsewhere. Across demographic groups, fewer than half are satisfied, with the exception of Latinos (56%), those with a loftier school degree or less (55%), and those making less than $40,000 (53%).

In add-on to the lack of satisfaction with the mode commonwealth is working, Californians are divided about whether Americans of different political positions can yet come together and piece of work out their differences. Forty-nine percent are optimistic, while 46 percent are pessimistic. Optimism has been similar in more recent years, but has decreased seven points since nosotros first asked this question in September 2017 (56%). In September 2020, simply before the 2020 general election, Californians were also divided (47% optimistic, 49% pessimistic).

Today, in a rare moment of bipartisan understanding, nigh four in ten Democrats, Republicans, and independents are optimistic that Americans of dissimilar political views will exist able to come together. Beyond regions, about half in Orange/San Diego, the Inland Empire, and the San Francisco Bay Area are optimistic. Beyond demographic groups, just the following groups have a majority or more who are optimistic: African Americans and Latinos (61% each), those with a high schoolhouse diploma or less (63%), and those with household incomes under $xl,000 (61%). Notably, in 2017, half or more across parties, regions, and demographic groups were optimistic.


Approval Ratings

With nearly two weeks to go before Governor Newsom’southward bid for reelection, a bulk of Californians (54%) and likely voters (52%) approve of the way he is handling his job, while fewer disapprove (33% adults, 45% likely voters). Approving was nearly identical in September (52% adults, 55% probable voters) and has been 50 percentage or more since January 2020. Today, near 8 in ten Democrats—compared to about half of independents and about one in ten Republicans—approve of Governor Newsom. One-half or more beyond regions approve of Newsom, except in the Central Valley (42%). Across demographic groups, most one-half or more approve of how Governor Newsom is handling his chore.

With all lxxx land assembly positions and half of state senate seats up for election, fewer than half of adults (49%) and probable voters (43%) approve of the manner that the California Legislature is treatment its job. Views are deeply divided along partisan lines; approval is highest in the San Francisco Bay Area and lowest in Orange/San Diego. Most one-half across racial/ethnic groups corroborate, and approval is much college amongst younger Californians.

Majorities of California adults (53%) and likely voters (52%) approve of the way President Biden is treatment his task, while fewer disapprove (43% adults, 47% probable voters). Approving is similar to September (53% adults and likely voters), and Biden’s approval rating among adults has been at 50 pct or college since we offset asked this question in January 2021. Today, most eight in x Democrats corroborate of Biden’s chore performance, compared to virtually four in ten independents and 1 in x Republicans. Approving is higher in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles than in the Inland Empire, Orange/San Diego, and the Central Valley. Most one-half or more across demographic groups approve of President Biden, with the exception of those with some college education (44%).

Approval of Congress remains depression, with fewer than four in ten adults (37%) and probable voters (29%) approval. Approving of Congress amid adults has been beneath 40 percentage for all of 2022 after seeing a brief run above 40 pct for all of 2021. Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to approve of Congress. Fewer than half across regions and demographic groups approve of Congress.

Us Senator Alex Padilla is on the California ballot twice this November—once for the remainder of Vice President Harris’south term and once for reelection. Senator Padilla has the blessing of 46 percent of adults and 48 percent of likely voters (adults: 26% disapprove, 29% don’t know; likely voters: 31% disapprove, 22% don’t know). Approval in March was at 44 percent for adults and 39 percent for likely voters. Today, Padilla’s approval rating is much higher amidst Democrats than independents and Republicans. Across regions, about half in the San Francisco Bay Surface area, Los Angeles, and the Inland Empire corroborate of the US senator, compared to iv in ten in Orange/San Diego and one in three in the Central Valley. Across demographic groups, about half or more approve among women, younger adults, African Americans, Asian Americans, and Latinos. Views are like across education and income groups, with but fewer than half approving.

US Senator Dianne Feinstein—who is not on the California ballot this Nov—has the approving of 41 percent of adults and probable voters (adults: 42% disapprove, 17% don’t know; likely voters: 52% disapprove, 7% don’t know). Blessing in March was at 41 per centum for adults and 36 per centum for likely voters. Today, Feinstein’s approval rating is far higher amongst Democrats and independents than Republicans. Beyond regions, approval reaches a majority but in the San Francisco Bay Area. Beyond demographic groups, approval reaches a majority only amidst African Americans

Topics

2022 Ballot COVID-19 Economic system Health & Safety Net Political Mural Statewide Survey

Source: https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-october-2022/

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