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Cardinal Findings

California voters accept now received their mail ballots, and the November viii full general election has entered its concluding stage. Amid ascent prices and economic uncertainty—as well as deep partisan divisions over social and political issues—Californians are processing a great bargain of information to assist them choose state constitutional officers and state legislators and to make policy decisions most state propositions. The 2022 midterm election also features a closely divided Congress, with the likelihood that a few races in California may decide which party controls the US House.

These are amongst the central findings of a statewide survey on land and national issues conducted from October fourteen to 23 by the Public Policy Institute of California:

  • Many Californians take negative perceptions of their personal finances and the US economy.
    70-six percent rate the nation’south economy as “not and then expert” or “poor.” Xxx-nine percent say their finances are “worse off” today than a yr ago. Forty-vii pct say that things in California are going in the right management, while 33 percent recollect things in the US are going in the correct management; partisans differ in their overall outlook.→

  • figure - Californians name jobs, the economy, and inflation as the top issue

    Amongst probable voters, 55 percent would vote for Gavin Newsom and 36 percentage would vote for Brian Dahle if the governor’s ballot were today. Partisans are deeply divided in their choices. Sixty percent are very or fairly closely following news nearly the governor’southward race. Sixty-ii percent are satisfied with the candidate choices in the governor’southward ballot.→



  • When likely voters are read the election title and labels, 34 percent would vote yeah on Proffer 26 (sports betting at tribal casinos), 26 percent would vote yes on Proposition 27 (online sports gambling),
    and 41 pct would vote yes on Proffer 30 (reducing greenhouse gases). Most likely voters say they are not personally interested in sports betting, and 48 per centum think it would be a “bad affair” if it became legal in the state. Fewer than half of likely voters say the vote outcome of Propositions 26, 27, or 30 is very important to them.→



  • L-6 pct of likely voters would support the Democratic candidate in their The states House race if the election were today. Threescore-one percent say the issue of abortion rights is very important in their vote for Congress this year; Democrats are far more than likely than Republicans or independents to agree this view. Virtually half are “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic nearly voting for Congress this year; 54 pct of Republicans and Democrats, and 41 percent of independents, are highly enthusiastic this twelvemonth.→
  • Forty-5 pct of Californians and 40 percentage of likely voters are satisfied with the way that democracy is working in the The states.
    Republicans are far less likely than Democrats and independents to hold this positive view. There is rare partisan consensus on one topic: majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and independents are pessimistic that Americans with different political views can even so come together and piece of work out their differences.→
  • Majorities of California adults and likely voters approve of Governor Gavin Newsom and President Joe Biden. About four in ten or more than California adults and likely voters approve of United states of america Senator Dianne Feinstein and United states of america Senator Alex Padilla. These approval ratings vary across partisan groups. Approval of the state legislature is higher than approval of the US Congress.→


Overall Mood

With less than two weeks to go until what is ready to be a highly consequential midterm election, California adults are divided on whether the state is generally headed in the right direction (47%) or wrong direction (48%); a majority of likely voters (54%) remember the land is headed in the wrong direction (43% correct direction). Similar shares held this view last calendar month (wrong direction: 44% adults, 49% likely voters; right direction: 50% adults, 48% likely voters). Today, at that place is a wide partisan split: 7 in ten Democrats are optimistic about the direction of the land, while 91 percent of Republicans and 59 percent of independents are pessimistic. Majorities of residents in the Central Valley and Orange/San Diego say the country is going in the wrong management, while a majority in the San Francisco Bay Area say right direction; adults elsewhere are divided. Beyond demographic groups, Californians ages 18 to 34 (lx%), Asian Americans (52%), college graduates (52%), renters (52%), and women (52%) are the simply groups in which a majority are optimistic nearly California’s direction.

Californians are much more than pessimistic virtually the management of the country than they are virtually the direction of the country. Solid majorities of adults (62%) and likely voters (71%) say the The states is going in the wrong direction, and majorities take held this view since September 2021. Ane in three or fewer adults (33%) and probable voters (25%) call up the land is going in the right direction. Majorities across all demographic groups and partisan groups, as well as beyond regions, are pessimistic about the direction of the United States.

The country of the economy and inflation are likely to play a critical office in the upcoming election, and about iv in ten adults (39%) and likely voters (43%) say they and their family are worse off financially than they were a year ago. Like shares say they are financially in near the same spot (43% adults, 44% likely voters). The share who feel they are worse off has risen slightly among probable voters since May, but is like among adults (37% adults, 36% likely voters). Fewer than ii in ten Californians say they are meliorate off than they were one year ago (17% adults, 13% probable voters). A wide partisan divide exists: nearly Democrats and independents say their financial state of affairs is about the aforementioned every bit a yr agone, while solid majorities of Republicans say they are worse off. Regionally, about half in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles say they are nigh the same, while one-half in the Central Valley say they are worse off; residents elsewhere are divided between being worse off and the same. Across demographic groups, pluralities say they are either financially almost the aforementioned equally last year or worse off, with the exception of African Americans (51% about the same, 33% worse off, 16% better off) and Asian Americans (51% about the same, 27% worse off, 20% amend off). The shares saying they are worse off decline equally educational attainment increases.

With persistent aggrandizement and concerns about a possible recession in the future, an overwhelming majority of Californians believe the United states of america economy is in not so good (43% adults, 40% probable voters) or poor (33% adults, 36% probable voters) shape. Virtually a quarter of adults (three% excellent, twenty% good) and likely voters (2% first-class, 23% good) feel positively about the national economic system. Strong majorities across partisan groups experience negatively, simply Republicans and independents are much more than likely than Democrats to say the economy is in poor shape. Solid majorities across the state’due south major regions likewise as all demographic groups say the economic system is in not and then good or poor shape. In a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll, 24 percentage (3% fantabulous, 21% proficient) of adults nationwide felt positively well-nigh the US economic system, while 74 per centum (36% not so good, 38% poor) expressed negative views.


Gubernatorial Ballot

Half dozen in ten probable voters say they are post-obit news near the 2022 governor’south race very (25%) or adequately (35%) closely—a share that has risen from one-half just a calendar month ago (17% very, 33% fairly). This finding is somewhat similar to October 2018, when 68 percent said this (28% very, forty% closely) a month earlier the previous gubernatorial election. Today, majorities beyond partisan, demographic, and regional groups say they are following news about the gubernatorial election either very or fairly closely. The shares saying they are post-obit the news very closely is highest among residents in Republican districts (39%), Republicans (thirty%), whites (29%), and adults with incomes of $40,000 to $79,999 (29%). Older likely voters (27%) are slightly more likely than younger likely voters (21%) to say they are following the news closely.

Autonomous incumbent Gavin Newsom is alee of Republican Brian Dahle (55% to 36%) among probable voters, while few say they would not vote, would vote for neither, or don’t know who they would vote for in the governor’s race. The share supporting the reelection of the governor was similar a month ago (58% Newsom, 31% Dahle). Today, Newsom enjoys the support of most Democrats (91%), while most Republicans (86%) support Dahle; Newsom has an edge over Dahle among independent probable voters (47% Newsom, 37% Dahle). Beyond the state’s regions, two in three in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles back up Newsom, as exercise nearly half in the Inland Empire and Orangish/San Diego; probable voters in the Key Valley are split. Newsom leads in all demographic groups, with the exception of men (45% Newsom, 44% Dahle) and those with a loftier school diploma only (46% Newsom, 49% Dahle). The share supporting Newsom grows as educational attainment increases (46% high schoolhouse only, 56% some college, 60% college graduates), while it decreases with rising income (64% less than $40,000, 56% $40,000 to $79,999, 52% $eighty,000 or more).

A solid bulk of likely voters (62%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the November eight election, while about three in ten (32%) are not satisfied. Shares expressing satisfaction have increased somewhat from a month ago (53%) and were similar prior to the 2018 gubernatorial election (60% Oct 2018). Today, a solid majority of Democrats (79%) and independents (61%) say they are satisfied, compared to fewer than half of Republicans (44%). Majorities across demographic groups say they are satisfied, and notably, women (68%) are more likely than men (56%) to say this. Majorities across the land’due south regions say they are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the upcoming gubernatorial election.


Country Propositions 26, 27, and thirty

In the upcoming Nov 8 ballot, in that location will be seven land propositions for voters. Due to time constraints, our survey only asked about three ballot measures: Propositions 26, 27, and thirty. For each, we read the proposition number, election, and ballot label. 2 of the state ballot measures were besides included in the September survey (Propositions 27 and 30), while Proposition 26 was non.

If the election were held today, 34 percentage of likely voters would vote “yes,” 57 pct would vote “no,” and 9 percent are unsure of how they would vote on Proffer 26—Allows In-Person Roulette, Dice, Game, Sports Wagering on Tribal Lands. This mensurate would let in-person sports betting at racetracks and tribal casinos, requiring that racetracks and casinos offering sports betting make sure payments to the state to support state regulatory costs. Information technology also allows roulette and die games at tribal casinos and adds a new manner to enforce sure land gambling laws. At that place is partisan agreement on Prop 26: fewer than four in ten Democrats, Republicans, and independents would vote “yes.” Moreover, less than a majority across all regions and demographic groups—with the exception of likely voters ages xviii to 44 (51% aye, 44% no)—would vote “yep.”

If the election were held today, 26 percent of likely voters would vote “yep,” 67 percent would vote “no,” and 8 percentage are unsure of how they would vote on Suggestion 27—Allows Online and Mobile Sports Wagering Outside Tribal Lands. This citizens’ initiative would allow Indian tribes and affiliated businesses to operate online and mobile sports wagering outside tribal lands. Strong majorities across partisan groups would vote “no” on Prop 27. The share voting “yes” has decreased since a month ago (34% September). Today, fewer than three in x across partisan groups would vote “yeah” on Prop 27. Moreover, fewer than four in ten beyond regions, gender, racial/ethnic, education, and income groups would vote “yeah.” Probable voters ages xviii to 44 (41%) are far more than likely than older likely voters ages 45 and to a higher place (19%) to say they would vote “yes.”

If the election were held today, 41 percent of probable voters would vote “aye,” 52 percent would vote “no,” and seven percentage are unsure of how they would vote on Suggestion 30—Provides Funding for Programs to Reduce Air Pollution and Prevent Wildfires by Increasing Tax on Personal Income over $2 Million. This citizens’ initiative would increase taxes on Californians earning more $2 million annually and allocate that tax revenue to zero-emission vehicle purchase incentives, vehicle charging stations, and wildfire prevention. The share saying “yes” on Prop 30 has decreased from 55 per centum in our September survey (note: since September, Governor Newsom has been featured in “no on Prop 30” commercials). Today, dissimilar Prop 26 and Prop 27, partisan opinions are divided on Prop 30: 61 pct of Democrats would vote “aye,” compared to far fewer Republicans (15%) and independents (38%). Across regions, and amidst men and women, support falls curt of a bulk (36% men, 45% women). Fewer than one-half beyond racial/ethnic groups say they would vote “yeah” (39% whites, 42% Latinos, 46% other racial/ethnic groups). Just over half of likely voters with incomes under $40,000 (52%) would vote “yeah,” compared to fewer in college-income groups (42% $twoscore,000 to $79,999, 36% $80,000 or more). Nearly one-half of probable voters ages 18 to 44 (49%) would vote “yes,” compared to 37 percent of older probable voters.

Fewer than one-half of likely voters say the outcome of each of these country propositions is very of import to them. Today, 21 percent of likely voters say the result of Prop 26 is very of import, 31 percent say the consequence of Prop 27 is very of import, and 42 percent say the outcome of Prop xxx is very important. The shares saying the outcomes are very important to them take remained like to a month agone for Prop 27 (29%) and Prop 30 (42%). Today, when it comes to the importance of the outcome of Prop 26, i in four or fewer across partisan groups say it is very important to them. Near i in three across partisan groups say the outcome of Prop 27 is very important to them. Fewer than half across partisan groups say the outcome of Prop 30 is very important to them.


Congressional Elections

When asked how they would vote if the 2022 ballot for the US Business firm of Representatives were held today, 56 percent of likely voters say they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate, while 39 percent would vote for or lean toward the Republican candidate. In September, a like share of probable voters preferred the Democratic candidate (sixty% Democrat/lean Democrat, 34% Republican/lean Republican). Today, overwhelming majorities of partisans support their political party’s candidate, while independents are divided (fifty% Democrat/lean Democrat, 44% Republican/lean Republican). Democratic candidates are preferred by a 26-point margin in Autonomous-held districts, while Republican candidates are preferred by a 23-signal margin in Republican-held districts. In the x competitive California districts equally divers by the Melt Political Report, the Democratic candidate is preferred by a 22-signal margin (54% to 32%).

Abortion is some other prominent issue in this ballot. When asked about the importance of abortion rights, 61 percent of likely voters say the issue is very important in determining their vote for Congress and another 20 percentage say information technology is somewhat of import; merely 17 percent say information technology is not likewise or not at all important. Amid partisans, an overwhelming majority of Democrats (78%) and 55 percent of independents say it is very of import, compared to 43 percentage of Republicans. Majorities across regions and all demographic groups—with the exception of men (49% very of import)—say ballgame rights are very of import when making their choice among candidates for Congress.

With the controlling political party in Congress hanging in the residual, 51 per centum of probable voters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress this year; another 29 per centum are somewhat enthusiastic while 19 per centum are either not too or not at all enthusiastic. In October 2018 before the terminal midterm election, a similar 53 percent of likely voters were extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress (25% extremely, 28% very, 28% somewhat, 10% non too, viii% not at all). Today, Democrats and Republicans have about equal levels of enthusiasm, while independents are much less likely to be extremely or very enthusiastic. Half or more across regions are at least very enthusiastic, with the exceptions of likely voters in Los Angeles (44%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (43%). At least one-half across demographic groups are highly enthusiastic, with the exceptions of likely voters earning $twoscore,000 to $79,999 annually (48%), women (47%), Latinos (43%), those with a high school diploma or less (42%), renters (42%), and xviii- to 44-year-olds (37%).


Democracy and the Political Divide

As Californians ready to vote in the upcoming midterm election, fewer than half of adults and probable voters are satisfied with the way commonwealth is working in the United states of america—and few are very satisfied. Satisfaction was higher in our February survey when 53 percent of adults and 48 percent of likely voters were satisfied with commonwealth in America. Today, half of Democrats and well-nigh iv in ten independents are satisfied, compared to well-nigh ane in five Republicans. Notably, four in x Republicans are not at all satisfied. Beyond regions, half of residents in the San Francisco Bay Surface area (52%) and the Inland Empire (l%) are satisfied, compared to fewer elsewhere. Across demographic groups, fewer than half are satisfied, with the exception of Latinos (56%), those with a high schoolhouse degree or less (55%), and those making less than $xl,000 (53%).

In addition to the lack of satisfaction with the way commonwealth is working, Californians are divided about whether Americans of unlike political positions can nevertheless come together and work out their differences. Forty-ix per centum are optimistic, while 46 percent are pessimistic. Optimism has been like in more recent years, but has decreased 7 points since we first asked this question in September 2017 (56%). In September 2020, only before the 2020 general election, Californians were also divided (47% optimistic, 49% pessimistic).

Today, in a rare moment of bipartisan understanding, about 4 in ten Democrats, Republicans, and independents are optimistic that Americans of unlike political views volition exist able to come together. Across regions, about half in Orangish/San Diego, the Inland Empire, and the San Francisco Bay Surface area are optimistic. Beyond demographic groups, only the following groups accept a bulk or more who are optimistic: African Americans and Latinos (61% each), those with a high school diploma or less (63%), and those with household incomes under $40,000 (61%). Notably, in 2017, half or more across parties, regions, and demographic groups were optimistic.


Approving Ratings

With about two weeks to go earlier Governor Newsom’south bid for reelection, a majority of Californians (54%) and probable voters (52%) approve of the way he is handling his job, while fewer disapprove (33% adults, 45% likely voters). Approval was nigh identical in September (52% adults, 55% likely voters) and has been 50 percent or more since January 2020. Today, well-nigh viii in 10 Democrats—compared to about half of independents and well-nigh one in 10 Republicans—corroborate of Governor Newsom. Half or more across regions approve of Newsom, except in the Central Valley (42%). Across demographic groups, near one-half or more approve of how Governor Newsom is handling his job.

With all lxxx state associates positions and one-half of land senate seats upward for ballot, fewer than half of adults (49%) and likely voters (43%) approve of the style that the California Legislature is treatment its job. Views are deeply divided along partisan lines; approval is highest in the San Francisco Bay Surface area and everyman in Orange/San Diego. Near half across racial/ethnic groups approve, and approval is much higher among younger Californians.

Majorities of California adults (53%) and probable voters (52%) corroborate of the style President Biden is treatment his job, while fewer disapprove (43% adults, 47% likely voters). Approval is similar to September (53% adults and likely voters), and Biden’s approval rating among adults has been at 50 percent or higher since we first asked this question in January 2021. Today, most eight in ten Democrats approve of Biden’southward task operation, compared to about four in ten independents and 1 in 10 Republicans. Approval is college in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles than in the Inland Empire, Orangish/San Diego, and the Central Valley. About half or more beyond demographic groups approve of President Biden, with the exception of those with some college education (44%).

Approval of Congress remains low, with fewer than four in 10 adults (37%) and likely voters (29%) approving. Approval of Congress amidst adults has been below xl percent for all of 2022 later on seeing a brief run higher up 40 percent for all of 2021. Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to approve of Congress. Fewer than one-half across regions and demographic groups approve of Congress.

The states Senator Alex Padilla is on the California ballot twice this Nov—once for the residual of Vice President Harris’due south term and once for reelection. Senator Padilla has the approval of 46 per centum of adults and 48 percent of likely voters (adults: 26% disapprove, 29% don’t know; likely voters: 31% disapprove, 22% don’t know). Approval in March was at 44 per centum for adults and 39 per centum for likely voters. Today, Padilla’south blessing rating is much college among Democrats than independents and Republicans. Across regions, about half in the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, and the Inland Empire corroborate of the US senator, compared to four in 10 in Orange/San Diego and 1 in iii in the Central Valley. Across demographic groups, near half or more than approve among women, younger adults, African Americans, Asian Americans, and Latinos. Views are similar across education and income groups, with just fewer than half approving.

The states Senator Dianne Feinstein—who is not on the California ballot this November—has the approval of 41 percent of adults and likely voters (adults: 42% disapprove, 17% don’t know; likely voters: 52% disapprove, 7% don’t know). Approval in March was at 41 percent for adults and 36 percent for probable voters. Today, Feinstein’s approval rating is far higher among Democrats and independents than Republicans. Across regions, approval reaches a majority only in the San Francisco Bay Area. Beyond demographic groups, approval reaches a majority only among African Americans

Topics

2022 Election COVID-19 Economic system Health & Safety Net Political Landscape Statewide Survey

Source: https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-october-2022/

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