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Key Findings

California voters have now received their postal service ballots, and the November 8 general election has entered its final stage. Amid rising prices and economical uncertainty—as well as deep partisan divisions over social and political issues—Californians are processing a great deal of data to assistance them choose land constitutional officers and state legislators and to make policy decisions about state propositions. The 2022 midterm election also features a closely divided Congress, with the likelihood that a few races in California may determine which party controls the US House.

These are amongst the key findings of a statewide survey on state and national issues conducted from October 14 to 23 by the Public Policy Establish of California:

  • Many Californians have negative perceptions of their personal finances and the United states economy.
    Lxx-six percent rate the nation’s economy as “non so good” or “poor.” Thirty-ix percent say their finances are “worse off” today than a year ago. Forty-seven per centum say that things in California are going in the right direction, while 33 percent think things in the Us are going in the right management; partisans differ in their overall outlook.→

  • figure - Californians name jobs, the economy, and inflation as the top issue

    Among likely voters, 55 per centum would vote for Gavin Newsom and 36 percent would vote for Brian Dahle if the governor’s election were today. Partisans are deeply divided in their choices. Sixty percent are very or fairly closely post-obit news about the governor’southward race. Lx-2 per centum are satisfied with the candidate choices in the governor’s ballot.→



  • When probable voters are read the ballot title and labels, 34 percent would vote yes on Proffer 26 (sports betting at tribal casinos), 26 percent would vote yes on Suggestion 27 (online sports gambling),
    and 41 percent would vote yes on Suggestion 30 (reducing greenhouse gases). Most probable voters say they are not personally interested in sports betting, and 48 percent think it would be a “bad affair” if it became legal in the state. Fewer than half of probable voters say the vote outcome of Propositions 26, 27, or 30 is very important to them.→



  • Fifty-six pct of likely voters would back up the Democratic candidate in their US House race if the election were today. Sixty-one percent say the effect of abortion rights is very important in their vote for Congress this yr; Democrats are far more than probable than Republicans or independents to hold this view. About one-half are “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about voting for Congress this year; 54 percent of Republicans and Democrats, and 41 per centum of independents, are highly enthusiastic this year.→
  • Forty-five per centum of Californians and 40 pct of likely voters are satisfied with the mode that democracy is working in the United states of america.
    Republicans are far less likely than Democrats and independents to hold this positive view. There is rare partisan consensus on one topic: majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and independents are pessimistic that Americans with dissimilar political views can still come together and work out their differences.→
  • Majorities of California adults and probable voters approve of Governor Gavin Newsom and President Joe Biden. Nigh four in x or more California adults and likely voters approve of The states Senator Dianne Feinstein and US Senator Alex Padilla. These blessing ratings vary across partisan groups. Approving of the state legislature is higher than approval of the United states of america Congress.→


Overall Mood

With less than two weeks to get until what is set up to be a highly consequential midterm ballot, California adults are divided on whether the state is more often than not headed in the right direction (47%) or wrong direction (48%); a majority of likely voters (54%) remember the country is headed in the wrong direction (43% right direction). Similar shares held this view last month (wrong direction: 44% adults, 49% likely voters; right direction: 50% adults, 48% probable voters). Today, there is a wide partisan carve up: seven in 10 Democrats are optimistic about the direction of the state, while 91 percentage of Republicans and 59 percent of independents are pessimistic. Majorities of residents in the Fundamental Valley and Orange/San Diego say the state is going in the wrong direction, while a majority in the San Francisco Bay Surface area say right management; adults elsewhere are divided. Across demographic groups, Californians ages xviii to 34 (sixty%), Asian Americans (52%), higher graduates (52%), renters (52%), and women (52%) are the only groups in which a majority are optimistic virtually California’s direction.

Californians are much more than pessimistic about the management of the land than they are about the management of the land. Solid majorities of adults (62%) and likely voters (71%) say the The states is going in the wrong direction, and majorities take held this view since September 2021. I in three or fewer adults (33%) and likely voters (25%) think the state is going in the right direction. Majorities across all demographic groups and partisan groups, as well as across regions, are pessimistic about the direction of the United States.

The state of the economy and inflation are likely to play a critical role in the upcoming election, and virtually four in ten adults (39%) and likely voters (43%) say they and their family are worse off financially than they were a yr ago. Like shares say they are financially in about the aforementioned spot (43% adults, 44% likely voters). The share who feel they are worse off has risen slightly among likely voters since May, but is similar amidst adults (37% adults, 36% likely voters). Fewer than two in ten Californians say they are improve off than they were one yr ago (17% adults, 13% likely voters). A wide partisan divide exists: most Democrats and independents say their financial situation is almost the aforementioned as a year ago, while solid majorities of Republicans say they are worse off. Regionally, about half in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles say they are about the aforementioned, while half in the Primal Valley say they are worse off; residents elsewhere are divided between being worse off and the same. Across demographic groups, pluralities say they are either financially near the same equally last year or worse off, with the exception of African Americans (51% about the same, 33% worse off, 16% better off) and Asian Americans (51% well-nigh the same, 27% worse off, twenty% better off). The shares maxim they are worse off decline equally educational attainment increases.

With persistent aggrandizement and concerns about a possible recession in the future, an overwhelming majority of Californians believe the US economic system is in not so good (43% adults, 40% likely voters) or poor (33% adults, 36% probable voters) shape. Near a quarter of adults (3% excellent, 20% good) and likely voters (2% excellent, 23% expert) feel positively about the national economy. Strong majorities across partisan groups feel negatively, only Republicans and independents are much more likely than Democrats to say the economy is in poor shape. Solid majorities across the state’s major regions as well as all demographic groups say the economic system is in not and then skilful or poor shape. In a recent ABC News/Washington Postal service poll, 24 pct (3% excellent, 21% good) of adults nationwide felt positively about the Usa economic system, while 74 percent (36% non then good, 38% poor) expressed negative views.


Gubernatorial Election

6 in ten probable voters say they are following news almost the 2022 governor’southward race very (25%) or fairly (35%) closely—a share that has risen from half just a month ago (17% very, 33% fairly). This finding is somewhat like to October 2018, when 68 percentage said this (28% very, xl% closely) a month before the previous gubernatorial election. Today, majorities beyond partisan, demographic, and regional groups say they are following news about the gubernatorial ballot either very or fairly closely. The shares proverb they are following the news very closely is highest amidst residents in Republican districts (39%), Republicans (thirty%), whites (29%), and adults with incomes of $forty,000 to $79,999 (29%). Older probable voters (27%) are slightly more than likely than younger likely voters (21%) to say they are following the news closely.

Democratic incumbent Gavin Newsom is ahead of Republican Brian Dahle (55% to 36%) among likely voters, while few say they would not vote, would vote for neither, or don’t know who they would vote for in the governor’s race. The share supporting the reelection of the governor was like a calendar month ago (58% Newsom, 31% Dahle). Today, Newsom enjoys the support of nearly Democrats (91%), while almost Republicans (86%) back up Dahle; Newsom has an border over Dahle among independent likely voters (47% Newsom, 37% Dahle). Across the state’s regions, ii in 3 in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles back up Newsom, as do nearly half in the Inland Empire and Orange/San Diego; probable voters in the Central Valley are divide. Newsom leads in all demographic groups, with the exception of men (45% Newsom, 44% Dahle) and those with a loftier school diploma only (46% Newsom, 49% Dahle). The share supporting Newsom grows as educational attainment increases (46% loftier schoolhouse but, 56% some college, 60% college graduates), while it decreases with rising income (64% less than $40,000, 56% $xl,000 to $79,999, 52% $lxxx,000 or more).

A solid majority of probable voters (62%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the Nov 8 ballot, while about iii in ten (32%) are not satisfied. Shares expressing satisfaction accept increased somewhat from a calendar month agone (53%) and were similar prior to the 2018 gubernatorial election (60% October 2018). Today, a solid majority of Democrats (79%) and independents (61%) say they are satisfied, compared to fewer than half of Republicans (44%). Majorities beyond demographic groups say they are satisfied, and notably, women (68%) are more likely than men (56%) to say this. Majorities across the state’s regions say they are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the upcoming gubernatorial ballot.


State Propositions 26, 27, and 30

In the upcoming November 8 election, there will be seven state propositions for voters. Due to time constraints, our survey only asked virtually 3 ballot measures: Propositions 26, 27, and 30. For each, nosotros read the proffer number, ballot, and ballot label. Two of the state election measures were too included in the September survey (Propositions 27 and 30), while Proposition 26 was not.

If the election were held today, 34 percent of likely voters would vote “yes,” 57 per centum would vote “no,” and nine percentage are unsure of how they would vote on Proposition 26—Allows In-Person Roulette, Dice, Game, Sports Wagering on Tribal Lands. This mensurate would allow in-person sports betting at racetracks and tribal casinos, requiring that racetracks and casinos offering sports betting brand certain payments to the country to support state regulatory costs. Information technology too allows roulette and dice games at tribal casinos and adds a new manner to enforce sure land gambling laws. There is partisan agreement on Prop 26: fewer than iv in 10 Democrats, Republicans, and independents would vote “yes.” Moreover, less than a majority across all regions and demographic groups—with the exception of likely voters ages 18 to 44 (51% yes, 44% no)—would vote “yes.”

If the election were held today, 26 per centum of probable voters would vote “yes,” 67 percent would vote “no,” and 8 percent are unsure of how they would vote on Proposition 27—Allows Online and Mobile Sports Wagering Outside Tribal Lands. This citizens’ initiative would allow Indian tribes and affiliated businesses to operate online and mobile sports wagering outside tribal lands. Strong majorities across partisan groups would vote “no” on Prop 27. The share voting “yep” has decreased since a calendar month agone (34% September). Today, fewer than 3 in x across partisan groups would vote “yes” on Prop 27. Moreover, fewer than iv in x beyond regions, gender, racial/ethnic, education, and income groups would vote “yep.” Likely voters ages 18 to 44 (41%) are far more than likely than older likely voters ages 45 and above (19%) to say they would vote “yeah.”

If the election were held today, 41 per centum of probable voters would vote “yep,” 52 pct would vote “no,” and 7 percent are unsure of how they would vote on Proffer 30—Provides Funding for Programs to Reduce Air Pollution and Preclude Wildfires by Increasing Tax on Personal Income over $2 Million. This citizens’ initiative would increase taxes on Californians earning more than than $ii one thousand thousand annually and classify that tax acquirement to null-emission vehicle purchase incentives, vehicle charging stations, and wildfire prevention. The share saying “yes” on Prop 30 has decreased from 55 percent in our September survey (note: since September, Governor Newsom has been featured in “no on Prop 30” commercials). Today, unlike Prop 26 and Prop 27, partisan opinions are divided on Prop thirty: 61 percent of Democrats would vote “yep,” compared to far fewer Republicans (15%) and independents (38%). Across regions, and amidst men and women, support falls short of a majority (36% men, 45% women). Fewer than half beyond racial/ethnic groups say they would vote “yeah” (39% whites, 42% Latinos, 46% other racial/ethnic groups). But over half of likely voters with incomes under $40,000 (52%) would vote “yeah,” compared to fewer in higher-income groups (42% $40,000 to $79,999, 36% $eighty,000 or more). Nearly half of likely voters ages 18 to 44 (49%) would vote “yes,” compared to 37 percent of older likely voters.

Fewer than half of probable voters say the outcome of each of these state propositions is very of import to them. Today, 21 percent of likely voters say the outcome of Prop 26 is very important, 31 percent say the outcome of Prop 27 is very important, and 42 per centum say the outcome of Prop thirty is very of import. The shares saying the outcomes are very important to them have remained similar to a month ago for Prop 27 (29%) and Prop 30 (42%). Today, when information technology comes to the importance of the outcome of Prop 26, one in four or fewer across partisan groups say it is very important to them. About one in 3 across partisan groups say the issue of Prop 27 is very important to them. Fewer than one-half across partisan groups say the event of Prop 30 is very important to them.


Congressional Elections

When asked how they would vote if the 2022 election for the US Business firm of Representatives were held today, 56 percent of likely voters say they would vote for or lean toward the Autonomous candidate, while 39 percent would vote for or lean toward the Republican candidate. In September, a similar share of likely voters preferred the Autonomous candidate (60% Democrat/lean Democrat, 34% Republican/lean Republican). Today, overwhelming majorities of partisans support their party’s candidate, while independents are divided (50% Democrat/lean Democrat, 44% Republican/lean Republican). Democratic candidates are preferred by a 26-point margin in Democratic-held districts, while Republican candidates are preferred by a 23-point margin in Republican-held districts. In the ten competitive California districts as divers by the Cook Political Written report, the Democratic candidate is preferred by a 22-point margin (54% to 32%).

Ballgame is some other prominent event in this ballot. When asked about the importance of abortion rights, 61 percent of likely voters say the upshot is very important in determining their vote for Congress and some other 20 percent say information technology is somewhat of import; but 17 pct say it is not as well or not at all important. Among partisans, an overwhelming bulk of Democrats (78%) and 55 percent of independents say it is very important, compared to 43 percentage of Republicans. Majorities across regions and all demographic groups—with the exception of men (49% very of import)—say ballgame rights are very important when making their choice amid candidates for Congress.

With the decision-making political party in Congress hanging in the residual, 51 pct of likely voters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic nearly voting for Congress this twelvemonth; another 29 percentage are somewhat enthusiastic while 19 percentage are either not too or not at all enthusiastic. In October 2018 before the last midterm election, a similar 53 per centum of likely voters were extremely or very enthusiastic nearly voting for Congress (25% extremely, 28% very, 28% somewhat, 10% not too, 8% not at all). Today, Democrats and Republicans accept nigh equal levels of enthusiasm, while independents are much less likely to be extremely or very enthusiastic. Half or more across regions are at least very enthusiastic, with the exceptions of probable voters in Los Angeles (44%) and the San Francisco Bay Expanse (43%). At least one-half across demographic groups are highly enthusiastic, with the exceptions of likely voters earning $40,000 to $79,999 annually (48%), women (47%), Latinos (43%), those with a high school diploma or less (42%), renters (42%), and eighteen- to 44-twelvemonth-olds (37%).


Commonwealth and the Political Divide

Every bit Californians set to vote in the upcoming midterm election, fewer than one-half of adults and likely voters are satisfied with the way republic is working in the United States—and few are very satisfied. Satisfaction was higher in our February survey when 53 pct of adults and 48 per centum of likely voters were satisfied with democracy in America. Today, half of Democrats and about four in ten independents are satisfied, compared to nigh one in five Republicans. Notably, iv in ten Republicans are not at all satisfied. Across regions, half of residents in the San Francisco Bay Expanse (52%) and the Inland Empire (50%) are satisfied, compared to fewer elsewhere. Across demographic groups, fewer than half are satisfied, with the exception of Latinos (56%), those with a high school caste or less (55%), and those making less than $forty,000 (53%).

In improver to the lack of satisfaction with the manner commonwealth is working, Californians are divided virtually whether Americans of different political positions can yet come together and work out their differences. Forty-nine per centum are optimistic, while 46 percent are pessimistic. Optimism has been similar in more recent years, merely has decreased seven points since we kickoff asked this question in September 2017 (56%). In September 2020, just earlier the 2020 full general election, Californians were also divided (47% optimistic, 49% pessimistic).

Today, in a rare moment of bipartisan understanding, about iv in ten Democrats, Republicans, and independents are optimistic that Americans of unlike political views will be able to come together. Across regions, almost half in Orange/San Diego, the Inland Empire, and the San Francisco Bay Area are optimistic. Across demographic groups, simply the post-obit groups take a bulk or more than who are optimistic: African Americans and Latinos (61% each), those with a high school diploma or less (63%), and those with household incomes nether $40,000 (61%). Notably, in 2017, one-half or more across parties, regions, and demographic groups were optimistic.


Blessing Ratings

With about two weeks to go before Governor Newsom’s bid for reelection, a majority of Californians (54%) and likely voters (52%) corroborate of the style he is treatment his job, while fewer disapprove (33% adults, 45% likely voters). Blessing was virtually identical in September (52% adults, 55% likely voters) and has been 50 percent or more since January 2020. Today, nigh viii in ten Democrats—compared to about half of independents and about one in 10 Republicans—approve of Governor Newsom. Half or more than across regions corroborate of Newsom, except in the Primal Valley (42%). Beyond demographic groups, about half or more approve of how Governor Newsom is handling his task.

With all 80 state assembly positions and half of state senate seats up for election, fewer than half of adults (49%) and likely voters (43%) approve of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job. Views are deeply divided along partisan lines; approval is highest in the San Francisco Bay Area and lowest in Orangish/San Diego. Nearly half across racial/indigenous groups approve, and approval is much higher among younger Californians.

Majorities of California adults (53%) and likely voters (52%) approve of the way President Biden is handling his job, while fewer disapprove (43% adults, 47% likely voters). Blessing is similar to September (53% adults and probable voters), and Biden’s approval rating among adults has been at 50 pct or higher since we first asked this question in January 2021. Today, virtually eight in ten Democrats corroborate of Biden’s job operation, compared to well-nigh four in ten independents and one in x Republicans. Approval is college in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles than in the Inland Empire, Orange/San Diego, and the Key Valley. About half or more than beyond demographic groups approve of President Biden, with the exception of those with some college education (44%).

Approval of Congress remains low, with fewer than iv in ten adults (37%) and likely voters (29%) blessing. Approval of Congress amid adults has been below 40 pct for all of 2022 after seeing a brief run to a higher place twoscore percent for all of 2021. Democrats are far more than likely than Republicans to approve of Congress. Fewer than one-half across regions and demographic groups approve of Congress.

US Senator Alex Padilla is on the California ballot twice this November—once for the remainder of Vice President Harris’southward term and once for reelection. Senator Padilla has the approval of 46 percent of adults and 48 per centum of likely voters (adults: 26% disapprove, 29% don’t know; likely voters: 31% disapprove, 22% don’t know). Approving in March was at 44 percent for adults and 39 percentage for likely voters. Today, Padilla’due south approval rating is much higher among Democrats than independents and Republicans. Across regions, about half in the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, and the Inland Empire approve of the U.s. senator, compared to 4 in ten in Orange/San Diego and i in iii in the Central Valley. Beyond demographic groups, about half or more approve among women, younger adults, African Americans, Asian Americans, and Latinos. Views are like across didactics and income groups, with merely fewer than half approving.

Usa Senator Dianne Feinstein—who is not on the California ballot this November—has the approval of 41 percent of adults and likely voters (adults: 42% disapprove, 17% don’t know; likely voters: 52% disapprove, 7% don’t know). Approval in March was at 41 percentage for adults and 36 percent for probable voters. Today, Feinstein’s approval rating is far college amidst Democrats and independents than Republicans. Across regions, blessing reaches a majority only in the San Francisco Bay Area. Across demographic groups, blessing reaches a majority merely amidst African Americans

Topics

2022 Election COVID-19 Economic system Health & Condom Net Political Mural Statewide Survey

Source: https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-october-2022/

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