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Key Findings
California voters have now received their post ballots, and the Nov 8 general election has entered its final stage. Amid ascension prices and economical doubt—likewise equally deep partisan divisions over social and political problems—Californians are processing a great deal of information to aid them choose land constitutional officers and state legislators and to make policy decisions about land propositions. The 2022 midterm election also features a closely divided Congress, with the likelihood that a few races in California may make up one's mind which party controls the US House.
These are among the key findings of a statewide survey on state and national issues conducted from October xiv to 23 by the Public Policy Establish of California:
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Many Californians have negative perceptions of their personal finances and the US economy.
Seventy-vi percent rate the nation’s economy as “not so good” or “poor.” Thirty-nine per centum say their finances are “worse off” today than a twelvemonth ago. Forty-7 percent say that things in California are going in the right direction, while 33 percent remember things in the US are going in the right direction; partisans differ in their overall outlook.→ -
Among probable voters, 55 pct would vote for Gavin Newsom and 36 per centum would vote for Brian Dahle if the governor’southward election were today. Partisans are deeply divided in their choices. Threescore pct are very or adequately closely following news most the governor’south race. Lx-two pct are satisfied with the candidate choices in the governor’s election.→ -
When likely voters are read the ballot championship and labels, 34 percentage would vote yes on Proffer 26 (sports betting at tribal casinos), 26 percent would vote yep on Proffer 27 (online sports gambling),
and 41 percent would vote yes on Proposition 30 (reducing greenhouse gases). Most probable voters say they are not personally interested in sports betting, and 48 percent recall it would be a “bad thing” if it became legal in the state. Fewer than one-half of probable voters say the vote outcome of Propositions 26, 27, or 30 is very important to them.→ -
Fifty-six percent of probable voters would support the Autonomous candidate in their US Business firm race if the election were today. Sixty-one percentage say the issue of abortion rights is very important in their vote for Congress this year; Democrats are far more than likely than Republicans or independents to hold this view. About half are “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about voting for Congress this year; 54 percent of Republicans and Democrats, and 41 percent of independents, are highly enthusiastic this yr.→ -
Twoscore-five percentage of Californians and 40 pct of probable voters are satisfied with the style that republic is working in the U.s.a..
Republicans are far less likely than Democrats and independents to concord this positive view. There is rare partisan consensus on i topic: majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and independents are pessimistic that Americans with different political views can yet come up together and work out their differences.→ - Majorities of California adults and likely voters approve of Governor Gavin Newsom and President Joe Biden. About four in ten or more California adults and probable voters approve of US Senator Dianne Feinstein and US Senator Alex Padilla. These blessing ratings vary beyond partisan groups. Approval of the land legislature is higher than approval of the US Congress.→
Overall Mood
With less than 2 weeks to become until what is set to be a highly consequential midterm ballot, California adults are divided on whether the state is generally headed in the right direction (47%) or incorrect direction (48%); a bulk of likely voters (54%) call back the country is headed in the wrong direction (43% right direction). Similar shares held this view terminal month (incorrect management: 44% adults, 49% likely voters; right direction: l% adults, 48% probable voters). Today, in that location is a wide partisan carve up: seven in ten Democrats are optimistic most the management of the state, while 91 percent of Republicans and 59 per centum of independents are pessimistic. Majorities of residents in the Central Valley and Orange/San Diego say the state is going in the wrong direction, while a majority in the San Francisco Bay Area say correct management; adults elsewhere are divided. Across demographic groups, Californians ages 18 to 34 (60%), Asian Americans (52%), college graduates (52%), renters (52%), and women (52%) are the only groups in which a majority are optimistic virtually California’s direction.
Californians are much more than pessimistic virtually the direction of the land than they are about the management of the land. Solid majorities of adults (62%) and likely voters (71%) say the United states is going in the wrong direction, and majorities have held this view since September 2021. One in three or fewer adults (33%) and likely voters (25%) recollect the country is going in the right direction. Majorities across all demographic groups and partisan groups, as well equally across regions, are pessimistic about the direction of the United States.
The state of the economy and aggrandizement are probable to play a critical role in the upcoming election, and virtually four in ten adults (39%) and likely voters (43%) say they and their family unit are worse off financially than they were a year agone. Similar shares say they are financially in most the same spot (43% adults, 44% probable voters). The share who experience they are worse off has risen slightly among likely voters since May, only is similar amongst adults (37% adults, 36% likely voters). Fewer than two in ten Californians say they are better off than they were one yr agone (17% adults, 13% likely voters). A broad partisan divide exists: nearly Democrats and independents say their financial situation is nearly the same as a twelvemonth ago, while solid majorities of Republicans say they are worse off. Regionally, about half in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles say they are nearly the same, while half in the Key Valley say they are worse off; residents elsewhere are divided between existence worse off and the same. Across demographic groups, pluralities say they are either financially about the same as last yr or worse off, with the exception of African Americans (51% most the same, 33% worse off, 16% better off) and Asian Americans (51% almost the same, 27% worse off, 20% better off). The shares saying they are worse off pass up as educational attainment increases.
With persistent inflation and concerns about a possible recession in the hereafter, an overwhelming majority of Californians believe the US economy is in non and then good (43% adults, twoscore% likely voters) or poor (33% adults, 36% probable voters) shape. About a quarter of adults (three% excellent, twenty% good) and likely voters (ii% excellent, 23% adept) feel positively almost the national economic system. Potent majorities beyond partisan groups feel negatively, but Republicans and independents are much more likely than Democrats to say the economy is in poor shape. Solid majorities beyond the country’s major regions as well as all demographic groups say the economy is in not so good or poor shape. In a recent ABC News/Washington Mail service poll, 24 percent (iii% excellent, 21% proficient) of adults nationwide felt positively nigh the US economy, while 74 per centum (36% not so good, 38% poor) expressed negative views.
Gubernatorial Election
Vi in ten likely voters say they are following news about the 2022 governor’southward race very (25%) or adequately (35%) closely—a share that has risen from half just a calendar month ago (17% very, 33% fairly). This finding is somewhat similar to October 2018, when 68 pct said this (28% very, 40% closely) a calendar month earlier the previous gubernatorial election. Today, majorities beyond partisan, demographic, and regional groups say they are following news about the gubernatorial election either very or adequately closely. The shares saying they are following the news very closely is highest among residents in Republican districts (39%), Republicans (30%), whites (29%), and adults with incomes of $forty,000 to $79,999 (29%). Older likely voters (27%) are slightly more likely than younger likely voters (21%) to say they are following the news closely.
Democratic incumbent Gavin Newsom is ahead of Republican Brian Dahle (55% to 36%) amid probable voters, while few say they would not vote, would vote for neither, or don’t know who they would vote for in the governor’s race. The share supporting the reelection of the governor was similar a calendar month ago (58% Newsom, 31% Dahle). Today, Newsom enjoys the support of most Democrats (91%), while almost Republicans (86%) support Dahle; Newsom has an edge over Dahle among independent likely voters (47% Newsom, 37% Dahle). Beyond the state’s regions, two in three in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles back up Newsom, as exercise nearly half in the Inland Empire and Orange/San Diego; likely voters in the Central Valley are split up. Newsom leads in all demographic groups, with the exception of men (45% Newsom, 44% Dahle) and those with a loftier school diploma only (46% Newsom, 49% Dahle). The share supporting Newsom grows as educational attainment increases (46% loftier school only, 56% some college, lx% college graduates), while it decreases with rising income (64% less than $40,000, 56% $twoscore,000 to $79,999, 52% $fourscore,000 or more).
A solid majority of probable voters (62%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the November viii election, while about three in ten (32%) are not satisfied. Shares expressing satisfaction have increased somewhat from a month ago (53%) and were similar prior to the 2018 gubernatorial election (threescore% Oct 2018). Today, a solid bulk of Democrats (79%) and independents (61%) say they are satisfied, compared to fewer than half of Republicans (44%). Majorities across demographic groups say they are satisfied, and notably, women (68%) are more likely than men (56%) to say this. Majorities across the country’s regions say they are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the upcoming gubernatorial election.
State Propositions 26, 27, and 30
In the upcoming November 8 election, in that location volition be seven state propositions for voters. Due to time constraints, our survey just asked about three ballot measures: Propositions 26, 27, and xxx. For each, nosotros read the proposition number, election, and ballot label. Two of the land election measures were also included in the September survey (Propositions 27 and 30), while Proposition 26 was not.
If the ballot were held today, 34 pct of likely voters would vote “yes,” 57 percent would vote “no,” and 9 percent are unsure of how they would vote on Proposition 26—Allows In-Person Roulette, Dice, Game, Sports Wagering on Tribal Lands. This measure would allow in-person sports betting at racetracks and tribal casinos, requiring that racetracks and casinos offering sports betting make certain payments to the state to support state regulatory costs. Information technology also allows roulette and die games at tribal casinos and adds a new way to enforce certain state gambling laws. There is partisan agreement on Prop 26: fewer than four in ten Democrats, Republicans, and independents would vote “yes.” Moreover, less than a bulk across all regions and demographic groups—with the exception of probable voters ages 18 to 44 (51% yes, 44% no)—would vote “yeah.”
If the election were held today, 26 percent of likely voters would vote “yes,” 67 percent would vote “no,” and eight percent are unsure of how they would vote on Suggestion 27—Allows Online and Mobile Sports Wagering Outside Tribal Lands. This citizens’ initiative would allow Indian tribes and affiliated businesses to operate online and mobile sports wagering exterior tribal lands. Strong majorities across partisan groups would vote “no” on Prop 27. The share voting “yep” has decreased since a month ago (34% September). Today, fewer than 3 in ten beyond partisan groups would vote “aye” on Prop 27. Moreover, fewer than four in ten beyond regions, gender, racial/ethnic, education, and income groups would vote “yep.” Probable voters ages xviii to 44 (41%) are far more likely than older probable voters ages 45 and to a higher place (19%) to say they would vote “yeah.”
If the election were held today, 41 per centum of likely voters would vote “yes,” 52 percent would vote “no,” and vii percent are unsure of how they would vote on Proposition 30—Provides Funding for Programs to Reduce Air Pollution and Forbid Wildfires by Increasing Tax on Personal Income over $2 One thousand thousand. This citizens’ initiative would increment taxes on Californians earning more than $2 million annually and allocate that tax revenue to zero-emission vehicle purchase incentives, vehicle charging stations, and wildfire prevention. The share saying “aye” on Prop 30 has decreased from 55 percentage in our September survey (note: since September, Governor Newsom has been featured in “no on Prop thirty” commercials). Today, unlike Prop 26 and Prop 27, partisan opinions are divided on Prop 30: 61 percent of Democrats would vote “yes,” compared to far fewer Republicans (xv%) and independents (38%). Across regions, and among men and women, support falls short of a majority (36% men, 45% women). Fewer than one-half across racial/ethnic groups say they would vote “yes” (39% whites, 42% Latinos, 46% other racial/ethnic groups). Just over one-half of likely voters with incomes nether $40,000 (52%) would vote “yeah,” compared to fewer in higher-income groups (42% $40,000 to $79,999, 36% $lxxx,000 or more). Nearly one-half of likely voters ages 18 to 44 (49%) would vote “yep,” compared to 37 percentage of older likely voters.
Fewer than half of likely voters say the effect of each of these country propositions is very important to them. Today, 21 percent of likely voters say the outcome of Prop 26 is very important, 31 percent say the effect of Prop 27 is very of import, and 42 per centum say the event of Prop thirty is very important. The shares saying the outcomes are very important to them have remained similar to a calendar month ago for Prop 27 (29%) and Prop 30 (42%). Today, when it comes to the importance of the issue of Prop 26, i in four or fewer beyond partisan groups say it is very of import to them. About i in three across partisan groups say the consequence of Prop 27 is very of import to them. Fewer than one-half beyond partisan groups say the effect of Prop thirty is very important to them.
Congressional Elections
When asked how they would vote if the 2022 ballot for the United states Business firm of Representatives were held today, 56 percentage of likely voters say they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate, while 39 percentage would vote for or lean toward the Republican candidate. In September, a like share of likely voters preferred the Democratic candidate (60% Democrat/lean Democrat, 34% Republican/lean Republican). Today, overwhelming majorities of partisans back up their party’s candidate, while independents are divided (50% Democrat/lean Democrat, 44% Republican/lean Republican). Autonomous candidates are preferred by a 26-point margin in Democratic-held districts, while Republican candidates are preferred by a 23-signal margin in Republican-held districts. In the ten competitive California districts as defined by the Cook Political Written report, the Democratic candidate is preferred by a 22-bespeak margin (54% to 32%).
Abortion is another prominent consequence in this election. When asked about the importance of ballgame rights, 61 pct of probable voters say the result is very important in determining their vote for Congress and another 20 percentage say it is somewhat important; just 17 per centum say information technology is not as well or non at all important. Among partisans, an overwhelming majority of Democrats (78%) and 55 percent of independents say it is very important, compared to 43 percent of Republicans. Majorities across regions and all demographic groups—with the exception of men (49% very important)—say abortion rights are very important when making their selection amidst candidates for Congress.
With the controlling party in Congress hanging in the residue, 51 pct of likely voters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress this year; another 29 per centum are somewhat enthusiastic while 19 percent are either non as well or not at all enthusiastic. In October 2018 earlier the final midterm election, a similar 53 per centum of likely voters were extremely or very enthusiastic well-nigh voting for Congress (25% extremely, 28% very, 28% somewhat, x% not too, 8% not at all). Today, Democrats and Republicans take about equal levels of enthusiasm, while independents are much less likely to be extremely or very enthusiastic. Half or more beyond regions are at least very enthusiastic, with the exceptions of likely voters in Los Angeles (44%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (43%). At least half beyond demographic groups are highly enthusiastic, with the exceptions of likely voters earning $40,000 to $79,999 annually (48%), women (47%), Latinos (43%), those with a loftier school diploma or less (42%), renters (42%), and 18- to 44-twelvemonth-olds (37%).
Democracy and the Political Divide
As Californians ready to vote in the upcoming midterm election, fewer than half of adults and likely voters are satisfied with the way democracy is working in the United States—and few are very satisfied. Satisfaction was higher in our February survey when 53 pct of adults and 48 percent of probable voters were satisfied with democracy in America. Today, one-half of Democrats and about four in ten independents are satisfied, compared to about one in five Republicans. Notably, four in ten Republicans are non at all satisfied. Across regions, one-half of residents in the San Francisco Bay Surface area (52%) and the Inland Empire (l%) are satisfied, compared to fewer elsewhere. Across demographic groups, fewer than half are satisfied, with the exception of Latinos (56%), those with a high school degree or less (55%), and those making less than $twoscore,000 (53%).
In addition to the lack of satisfaction with the mode democracy is working, Californians are divided almost whether Americans of different political positions tin can even so come together and piece of work out their differences. Xl-ix percent are optimistic, while 46 percent are pessimistic. Optimism has been similar in more than recent years, but has decreased 7 points since we first asked this question in September 2017 (56%). In September 2020, merely earlier the 2020 general election, Californians were likewise divided (47% optimistic, 49% pessimistic).
Today, in a rare moment of bipartisan agreement, about iv in ten Democrats, Republicans, and independents are optimistic that Americans of different political views volition be able to come together. Across regions, about one-half in Orangish/San Diego, the Inland Empire, and the San Francisco Bay Area are optimistic. Across demographic groups, merely the following groups accept a bulk or more who are optimistic: African Americans and Latinos (61% each), those with a high school diploma or less (63%), and those with household incomes under $40,000 (61%). Notably, in 2017, half or more beyond parties, regions, and demographic groups were optimistic.
Approval Ratings
With nigh two weeks to go before Governor Newsom’s bid for reelection, a majority of Californians (54%) and probable voters (52%) approve of the fashion he is handling his job, while fewer disapprove (33% adults, 45% likely voters). Approval was nearly identical in September (52% adults, 55% likely voters) and has been 50 percentage or more since January 2020. Today, nearly eight in ten Democrats—compared to virtually half of independents and about i in ten Republicans—approve of Governor Newsom. Half or more across regions corroborate of Newsom, except in the Central Valley (42%). Across demographic groups, about half or more than approve of how Governor Newsom is handling his task.
With all fourscore country assembly positions and half of state senate seats up for election, fewer than half of adults (49%) and likely voters (43%) corroborate of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job. Views are deeply divided along partisan lines; approval is highest in the San Francisco Bay Surface area and lowest in Orange/San Diego. About one-half across racial/ethnic groups approve, and approving is much college amidst younger Californians.
Majorities of California adults (53%) and likely voters (52%) corroborate of the way President Biden is handling his chore, while fewer disapprove (43% adults, 47% likely voters). Approval is similar to September (53% adults and likely voters), and Biden’s approving rating among adults has been at l percent or higher since we first asked this question in January 2021. Today, about eight in ten Democrats approve of Biden’due south job functioning, compared to nearly 4 in ten independents and i in x Republicans. Approval is higher in the San Francisco Bay Expanse and Los Angeles than in the Inland Empire, Orange/San Diego, and the Central Valley. About half or more across demographic groups approve of President Biden, with the exception of those with some college education (44%).
Approval of Congress remains low, with fewer than four in x adults (37%) and probable voters (29%) approval. Approving of Congress among adults has been beneath 40 pct for all of 2022 later seeing a cursory run to a higher place forty percent for all of 2021. Democrats are far more than likely than Republicans to corroborate of Congress. Fewer than half across regions and demographic groups approve of Congress.
US Senator Alex Padilla is on the California election twice this November—once for the remainder of Vice President Harris’s term and once for reelection. Senator Padilla has the blessing of 46 percent of adults and 48 percent of probable voters (adults: 26% disapprove, 29% don’t know; probable voters: 31% disapprove, 22% don’t know). Approval in March was at 44 percent for adults and 39 percent for probable voters. Today, Padilla’s blessing rating is much college amidst Democrats than independents and Republicans. Beyond regions, about half in the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, and the Inland Empire approve of the US senator, compared to iv in ten in Orange/San Diego and one in three in the Key Valley. Across demographic groups, virtually one-half or more approve amidst women, younger adults, African Americans, Asian Americans, and Latinos. Views are similar across pedagogy and income groups, with simply fewer than half approving.
US Senator Dianne Feinstein—who is not on the California ballot this Nov—has the approving of 41 percent of adults and probable voters (adults: 42% disapprove, 17% don’t know; likely voters: 52% disapprove, seven% don’t know). Approving in March was at 41 percent for adults and 36 percent for likely voters. Today, Feinstein’south approval rating is far college among Democrats and independents than Republicans. Across regions, approving reaches a majority only in the San Francisco Bay Expanse. Across demographic groups, blessing reaches a bulk only among African Americans
Topics
2022 Election COVID-19 Economy Health & Safety Net Political Landscape Statewide Survey
Source: https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-october-2022/