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Primal Findings
California voters take at present received their post ballots, and the Nov 8 general election has entered its final phase. Amongst rising prices and economical uncertainty—equally well every bit deep partisan divisions over social and political issues—Californians are processing a keen deal of data to assistance them choose state ramble officers and state legislators and to make policy decisions near state propositions. The 2022 midterm election as well features a closely divided Congress, with the likelihood that a few races in California may determine which party controls the US House.
These are among the key findings of a statewide survey on state and national issues conducted from Oct 14 to 23 past the Public Policy Institute of California:
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Many Californians have negative perceptions of their personal finances and the US economy.
Lxx-six percent rate the nation’south economy as “not and so good” or “poor.” Thirty-nine percent say their finances are “worse off” today than a year ago. Forty-seven per centum say that things in California are going in the correct direction, while 33 percent retrieve things in the United states are going in the correct management; partisans differ in their overall outlook.→ -
Amidst probable voters, 55 percent would vote for Gavin Newsom and 36 percent would vote for Brian Dahle if the governor’southward election were today. Partisans are deeply divided in their choices. Threescore percent are very or fairly closely following news about the governor’s race. Sixty-two per centum are satisfied with the candidate choices in the governor’s election.→ -
When likely voters are read the ballot championship and labels, 34 percent would vote yes on Proposition 26 (sports betting at tribal casinos), 26 percent would vote yes on Proposition 27 (online sports gambling),
and 41 percent would vote yes on Suggestion 30 (reducing greenhouse gases). Nigh likely voters say they are not personally interested in sports betting, and 48 percent retrieve information technology would exist a “bad thing” if information technology became legal in the country. Fewer than half of likely voters say the vote issue of Propositions 26, 27, or xxx is very of import to them.→ -
50-half dozen percent of likely voters would support the Democratic candidate in their US House race if the election were today. Sixty-i percent say the effect of ballgame rights is very important in their vote for Congress this yr; Democrats are far more than likely than Republicans or independents to hold this view. Almost one-half are “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about voting for Congress this year; 54 percentage of Republicans and Democrats, and 41 pct of independents, are highly enthusiastic this yr.→ -
Forty-five percent of Californians and 40 percent of likely voters are satisfied with the way that democracy is working in the United States.
Republicans are far less likely than Democrats and independents to hold this positive view. At that place is rare partisan consensus on one topic: majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and independents are pessimistic that Americans with different political views can still come up together and work out their differences.→ - Majorities of California adults and probable voters approve of Governor Gavin Newsom and President Joe Biden. Most four in x or more than California adults and probable voters approve of Usa Senator Dianne Feinstein and U.s.a. Senator Alex Padilla. These approval ratings vary across partisan groups. Approval of the state legislature is college than approval of the U.s.a. Congress.→
Overall Mood
With less than two weeks to become until what is set to be a highly consequential midterm election, California adults are divided on whether the state is generally headed in the right direction (47%) or incorrect direction (48%); a majority of probable voters (54%) call up the land is headed in the incorrect management (43% right direction). Similar shares held this view terminal month (incorrect direction: 44% adults, 49% likely voters; correct direction: 50% adults, 48% likely voters). Today, there is a wide partisan divide: 7 in ten Democrats are optimistic near the management of the land, while 91 percent of Republicans and 59 per centum of independents are pessimistic. Majorities of residents in the Primal Valley and Orangish/San Diego say the state is going in the wrong direction, while a majority in the San Francisco Bay Expanse say right direction; adults elsewhere are divided. Across demographic groups, Californians ages 18 to 34 (lx%), Asian Americans (52%), college graduates (52%), renters (52%), and women (52%) are the only groups in which a bulk are optimistic nigh California’s direction.
Californians are much more pessimistic about the direction of the state than they are about the direction of the state. Solid majorities of adults (62%) and likely voters (71%) say the Usa is going in the wrong direction, and majorities have held this view since September 2021. One in 3 or fewer adults (33%) and likely voters (25%) call up the land is going in the right direction. Majorities beyond all demographic groups and partisan groups, as well as beyond regions, are pessimistic about the direction of the U.s..
The state of the economy and inflation are likely to play a critical role in the upcoming election, and about 4 in ten adults (39%) and probable voters (43%) say they and their family are worse off financially than they were a year ago. Similar shares say they are financially in about the same spot (43% adults, 44% likely voters). The share who feel they are worse off has risen slightly among likely voters since May, only is similar amidst adults (37% adults, 36% likely voters). Fewer than two in ten Californians say they are better off than they were one year ago (17% adults, xiii% probable voters). A wide partisan split exists: most Democrats and independents say their financial situation is about the same as a twelvemonth ago, while solid majorities of Republicans say they are worse off. Regionally, about half in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles say they are nearly the same, while one-half in the Central Valley say they are worse off; residents elsewhere are divided between being worse off and the aforementioned. Across demographic groups, pluralities say they are either financially about the same as concluding year or worse off, with the exception of African Americans (51% about the aforementioned, 33% worse off, 16% better off) and Asian Americans (51% about the aforementioned, 27% worse off, 20% ameliorate off). The shares proverb they are worse off turn down as educational attainment increases.
With persistent inflation and concerns well-nigh a possible recession in the time to come, an overwhelming majority of Californians believe the Usa economic system is in non then good (43% adults, twoscore% probable voters) or poor (33% adults, 36% probable voters) shape. About a quarter of adults (iii% excellent, 20% good) and likely voters (2% excellent, 23% expert) feel positively about the national economy. Stiff majorities across partisan groups experience negatively, but Republicans and independents are much more likely than Democrats to say the economy is in poor shape. Solid majorities beyond the state’s major regions also every bit all demographic groups say the economic system is in not and then good or poor shape. In a contempo ABC News/Washington Post poll, 24 percent (iii% excellent, 21% good) of adults nationwide felt positively almost the The states economy, while 74 percent (36% not so good, 38% poor) expressed negative views.
Gubernatorial Election
Six in 10 probable voters say they are post-obit news about the 2022 governor’s race very (25%) or adequately (35%) closely—a share that has risen from half simply a calendar month ago (17% very, 33% fairly). This finding is somewhat similar to October 2018, when 68 pct said this (28% very, xl% closely) a month before the previous gubernatorial election. Today, majorities across partisan, demographic, and regional groups say they are following news about the gubernatorial election either very or fairly closely. The shares proverb they are following the news very closely is highest amongst residents in Republican districts (39%), Republicans (30%), whites (29%), and adults with incomes of $xl,000 to $79,999 (29%). Older probable voters (27%) are slightly more than probable than younger likely voters (21%) to say they are post-obit the news closely.
Democratic incumbent Gavin Newsom is ahead of Republican Brian Dahle (55% to 36%) amid likely voters, while few say they would not vote, would vote for neither, or don’t know who they would vote for in the governor’s race. The share supporting the reelection of the governor was similar a calendar month ago (58% Newsom, 31% Dahle). Today, Newsom enjoys the support of almost Democrats (91%), while nigh Republicans (86%) support Dahle; Newsom has an border over Dahle among independent likely voters (47% Newsom, 37% Dahle). Beyond the state’south regions, ii in three in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles support Newsom, as do almost half in the Inland Empire and Orange/San Diego; probable voters in the Fundamental Valley are split. Newsom leads in all demographic groups, with the exception of men (45% Newsom, 44% Dahle) and those with a high school diploma only (46% Newsom, 49% Dahle). The share supporting Newsom grows as educational attainment increases (46% high school only, 56% some college, 60% college graduates), while it decreases with rising income (64% less than $40,000, 56% $twoscore,000 to $79,999, 52% $80,000 or more).
A solid majority of probable voters (62%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the November 8 election, while near three in ten (32%) are not satisfied. Shares expressing satisfaction have increased somewhat from a month ago (53%) and were similar prior to the 2018 gubernatorial election (60% October 2018). Today, a solid majority of Democrats (79%) and independents (61%) say they are satisfied, compared to fewer than half of Republicans (44%). Majorities beyond demographic groups say they are satisfied, and notably, women (68%) are more likely than men (56%) to say this. Majorities across the state’s regions say they are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the upcoming gubernatorial election.
Land Propositions 26, 27, and 30
In the upcoming November viii election, at that place will be vii land propositions for voters. Due to time constraints, our survey only asked about three ballot measures: Propositions 26, 27, and 30. For each, we read the suggestion number, ballot, and ballot characterization. Ii of the state ballot measures were too included in the September survey (Propositions 27 and 30), while Proposition 26 was not.
If the election were held today, 34 percentage of likely voters would vote “aye,” 57 pct would vote “no,” and 9 percent are unsure of how they would vote on Proffer 26—Allows In-Person Roulette, Dice, Game, Sports Wagering on Tribal Lands. This measure would let in-person sports betting at racetracks and tribal casinos, requiring that racetracks and casinos offering sports betting make sure payments to the country to support land regulatory costs. Information technology too allows roulette and dice games at tribal casinos and adds a new mode to enforce certain state gambling laws. There is partisan understanding on Prop 26: fewer than four in ten Democrats, Republicans, and independents would vote “yes.” Moreover, less than a majority beyond all regions and demographic groups—with the exception of likely voters ages 18 to 44 (51% yeah, 44% no)—would vote “yes.”
If the ballot were held today, 26 percent of likely voters would vote “yes,” 67 percent would vote “no,” and 8 pct are unsure of how they would vote on Proposition 27—Allows Online and Mobile Sports Wagering Outside Tribal Lands. This citizens’ initiative would allow Indian tribes and affiliated businesses to operate online and mobile sports wagering exterior tribal lands. Strong majorities across partisan groups would vote “no” on Prop 27. The share voting “yes” has decreased since a calendar month agone (34% September). Today, fewer than three in 10 across partisan groups would vote “yes” on Prop 27. Moreover, fewer than four in ten across regions, gender, racial/indigenous, education, and income groups would vote “yeah.” Likely voters ages eighteen to 44 (41%) are far more likely than older likely voters ages 45 and above (19%) to say they would vote “yeah.”
If the election were held today, 41 per centum of likely voters would vote “yes,” 52 per centum would vote “no,” and vii percentage are unsure of how they would vote on Proffer 30—Provides Funding for Programs to Reduce Air Pollution and Prevent Wildfires past Increasing Revenue enhancement on Personal Income over $2 One thousand thousand. This citizens’ initiative would increment taxes on Californians earning more than than $2 million annually and allocate that tax revenue to zero-emission vehicle buy incentives, vehicle charging stations, and wildfire prevention. The share proverb “yes” on Prop xxx has decreased from 55 percent in our September survey (notation: since September, Governor Newsom has been featured in “no on Prop 30” commercials). Today, different Prop 26 and Prop 27, partisan opinions are divided on Prop 30: 61 percent of Democrats would vote “yes,” compared to far fewer Republicans (15%) and independents (38%). Across regions, and among men and women, support falls short of a majority (36% men, 45% women). Fewer than one-half across racial/ethnic groups say they would vote “yes” (39% whites, 42% Latinos, 46% other racial/indigenous groups). Just over half of likely voters with incomes nether $40,000 (52%) would vote “yes,” compared to fewer in higher-income groups (42% $40,000 to $79,999, 36% $lxxx,000 or more). Most one-half of likely voters ages xviii to 44 (49%) would vote “yes,” compared to 37 pct of older likely voters.
Fewer than half of likely voters say the issue of each of these land propositions is very important to them. Today, 21 percent of likely voters say the outcome of Prop 26 is very important, 31 percent say the outcome of Prop 27 is very of import, and 42 percent say the outcome of Prop 30 is very of import. The shares proverb the outcomes are very of import to them have remained similar to a month ago for Prop 27 (29%) and Prop 30 (42%). Today, when it comes to the importance of the outcome of Prop 26, one in four or fewer beyond partisan groups say it is very important to them. About one in iii across partisan groups say the outcome of Prop 27 is very important to them. Fewer than half beyond partisan groups say the outcome of Prop xxx is very important to them.
Congressional Elections
When asked how they would vote if the 2022 election for the Us House of Representatives were held today, 56 pct of probable voters say they would vote for or lean toward the Autonomous candidate, while 39 percentage would vote for or lean toward the Republican candidate. In September, a similar share of probable voters preferred the Democratic candidate (sixty% Democrat/lean Democrat, 34% Republican/lean Republican). Today, overwhelming majorities of partisans support their political party’s candidate, while independents are divided (fifty% Democrat/lean Democrat, 44% Republican/lean Republican). Democratic candidates are preferred by a 26-point margin in Democratic-held districts, while Republican candidates are preferred by a 23-point margin in Republican-held districts. In the ten competitive California districts as defined past the Cook Political Report, the Autonomous candidate is preferred by a 22-signal margin (54% to 32%).
Ballgame is some other prominent issue in this ballot. When asked about the importance of ballgame rights, 61 percentage of probable voters say the result is very important in determining their vote for Congress and another 20 percent say it is somewhat important; just 17 percentage say it is not also or not at all important. Among partisans, an overwhelming bulk of Democrats (78%) and 55 percent of independents say it is very of import, compared to 43 percentage of Republicans. Majorities across regions and all demographic groups—with the exception of men (49% very of import)—say abortion rights are very important when making their choice among candidates for Congress.
With the decision-making party in Congress hanging in the balance, 51 percent of likely voters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress this year; another 29 percent are somewhat enthusiastic while 19 percent are either not besides or not at all enthusiastic. In October 2018 before the last midterm election, a similar 53 percent of likely voters were extremely or very enthusiastic virtually voting for Congress (25% extremely, 28% very, 28% somewhat, 10% not besides, 8% not at all). Today, Democrats and Republicans take well-nigh equal levels of enthusiasm, while independents are much less likely to be extremely or very enthusiastic. Half or more across regions are at least very enthusiastic, with the exceptions of likely voters in Los Angeles (44%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (43%). At least half across demographic groups are highly enthusiastic, with the exceptions of likely voters earning $forty,000 to $79,999 annually (48%), women (47%), Latinos (43%), those with a high school diploma or less (42%), renters (42%), and eighteen- to 44-yr-olds (37%).
Democracy and the Political Split up
As Californians prepare to vote in the upcoming midterm election, fewer than half of adults and likely voters are satisfied with the way commonwealth is working in the United States—and few are very satisfied. Satisfaction was college in our February survey when 53 per centum of adults and 48 percent of likely voters were satisfied with republic in America. Today, one-half of Democrats and near iv in 10 independents are satisfied, compared to about ane in five Republicans. Notably, four in ten Republicans are not at all satisfied. Beyond regions, half of residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (52%) and the Inland Empire (50%) are satisfied, compared to fewer elsewhere. Across demographic groups, fewer than half are satisfied, with the exception of Latinos (56%), those with a loftier school caste or less (55%), and those making less than $40,000 (53%).
In add-on to the lack of satisfaction with the way commonwealth is working, Californians are divided about whether Americans of different political positions tin can still come together and work out their differences. Forty-nine pct are optimistic, while 46 percent are pessimistic. Optimism has been similar in more recent years, but has decreased 7 points since we first asked this question in September 2017 (56%). In September 2020, but before the 2020 full general election, Californians were as well divided (47% optimistic, 49% pessimistic).
Today, in a rare moment of bipartisan agreement, about four in x Democrats, Republicans, and independents are optimistic that Americans of different political views volition be able to come up together. Across regions, about half in Orange/San Diego, the Inland Empire, and the San Francisco Bay Area are optimistic. Across demographic groups, only the post-obit groups have a majority or more who are optimistic: African Americans and Latinos (61% each), those with a high school diploma or less (63%), and those with household incomes nether $40,000 (61%). Notably, in 2017, half or more across parties, regions, and demographic groups were optimistic.
Blessing Ratings
With virtually two weeks to become before Governor Newsom’south bid for reelection, a majority of Californians (54%) and likely voters (52%) approve of the way he is treatment his task, while fewer disapprove (33% adults, 45% likely voters). Approval was nearly identical in September (52% adults, 55% likely voters) and has been 50 percent or more since January 2020. Today, well-nigh eight in ten Democrats—compared to about one-half of independents and about one in ten Republicans—approve of Governor Newsom. Half or more than across regions approve of Newsom, except in the Cardinal Valley (42%). Across demographic groups, about one-half or more approve of how Governor Newsom is handling his job.
With all 80 state associates positions and half of state senate seats up for election, fewer than half of adults (49%) and likely voters (43%) approve of the mode that the California Legislature is handling its job. Views are securely divided along partisan lines; blessing is highest in the San Francisco Bay Surface area and lowest in Orange/San Diego. Near half beyond racial/ethnic groups approve, and approval is much higher among younger Californians.
Majorities of California adults (53%) and likely voters (52%) approve of the fashion President Biden is handling his job, while fewer disapprove (43% adults, 47% likely voters). Approving is like to September (53% adults and probable voters), and Biden’s blessing rating amidst adults has been at fifty percent or higher since nosotros kickoff asked this question in January 2021. Today, about viii in ten Democrats approve of Biden’s job performance, compared to about four in 10 independents and i in ten Republicans. Approval is college in the San Francisco Bay Surface area and Los Angeles than in the Inland Empire, Orange/San Diego, and the Fundamental Valley. Near half or more than across demographic groups approve of President Biden, with the exception of those with some college education (44%).
Approving of Congress remains low, with fewer than four in ten adults (37%) and likely voters (29%) approving. Blessing of Congress among adults has been below 40 percent for all of 2022 after seeing a brief run to a higher place 40 pct for all of 2021. Democrats are far more than likely than Republicans to approve of Congress. Fewer than half beyond regions and demographic groups approve of Congress.
US Senator Alex Padilla is on the California ballot twice this November—one time for the rest of Vice President Harris’s term and once for reelection. Senator Padilla has the approving of 46 percent of adults and 48 pct of probable voters (adults: 26% disapprove, 29% don’t know; likely voters: 31% disapprove, 22% don’t know). Approving in March was at 44 percent for adults and 39 percent for probable voters. Today, Padilla’s approval rating is much college among Democrats than independents and Republicans. Across regions, about half in the San Francisco Bay Expanse, Los Angeles, and the Inland Empire corroborate of the US senator, compared to four in ten in Orange/San Diego and i in three in the Central Valley. Across demographic groups, about half or more approve among women, younger adults, African Americans, Asian Americans, and Latinos. Views are like beyond education and income groups, with only fewer than one-half approving.
US Senator Dianne Feinstein—who is not on the California ballot this November—has the approving of 41 percent of adults and probable voters (adults: 42% disapprove, 17% don’t know; likely voters: 52% disapprove, vii% don’t know). Approval in March was at 41 per centum for adults and 36 percent for likely voters. Today, Feinstein’due south approval rating is far higher among Democrats and independents than Republicans. Across regions, approving reaches a majority only in the San Francisco Bay Area. Across demographic groups, blessing reaches a majority merely among African Americans
Topics
2022 Election COVID-nineteen Economic system Health & Safety Net Political Landscape Statewide Survey
Source: https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-october-2022/