New York Times Do You Live In A Bubble

Beloved Younger Generations;

I am writing to the younger generation. When you get an old-timer like me, anyone younger is of the younger generation. My focus is on the slightly more than one-half of the population of the U.S. who are younger than the age of 40, but this message is for those older as well. I write this because I, equally a scientist, am very worried virtually what has go of the man species. In just a few short months, we have seen the species devolve into a panic-driven, irrational, hysterical species.

Much of this hysteria has been forced upon united states past people who were elected to represent u.s., non dictate. Non all have gone this route only most take. They now seem to be merely serving themselves. Theaters may be closed but we certainly get to see much grandstanding from these people on a constant basis. Their main message is that THEY will make up one’s mind all risks for guild.

Equally human beings, we alive each twenty-four hours of our lives choosing our risks in life. Many risks nosotros do not even think almost consciously. Starting early in our babyhood nosotros are taught about risks and consequences by adults equally well as our peers. We are taught that at that place are risks that we tin manage to varying degrees and then there are risks that involve others to mitigate. Most risks fall into a combination mode; that is, we tin can have some control over the risk but nosotros are still dependent on others. Only, believe information technology or not, risks become mitigated by repetitive behavior, economics, and many factors.

All of which we balance in making our decisions. For example, flying in an airplane offers one niggling control over the chance. All the same, in making that decision you assume that the pilot and crew are well-trained, that the aircraft is maintained and serviced correctly, that it has been properly fueled, that the flight plan does not intersect with another aircraft, and then on – hundreds of people are now a function of the risk procedure; you are a nonexistent part of that take a chance. What allows you to make that hazard decision is past performance and knowledge of those people assuming the take a chance. Merely, y’all always have the choice not to fly.

Risk evaluation and management, therefore, is completely an individual exercise in personal responsibility. This evaluation is then personal because it fits with how we each will cull how to live our life. No one really wants any person to tell them how to live their lives and command those risks. Some people are willing to assume high personal risks in club to experience what they want to get out of life.

Sometimes, they will cull the high possibility of an early death if it means fulfilling an feel. Nevertheless in the past few months, a very few people, with no real agreement of what they are doing, are at present making those adventure decisions for everyone. And while the health impact has been felt greatest on the elderly and impoverished, the life impact has been felt mostly on your generation and the less fortunate of all ages in guild.

Infectious diseases know nothing of risks or risk-taking. A virus is a molecule seeking the necessary chemic reaction to sustain its life bike – Period. Information technology has evolutionary advantages beyond what we accept been able to yet encompass. Information technology seeks out cells to survive similar we consume food, or breathe air. Technically, viruses play no favorites. A virus volition seek entry into a viable cell that it tin then use to replicate itself. And so, at the early stages of infection, the playing field is pretty level for all hosts. Notwithstanding, humans have washed pretty well confronting them.

But, once infected, the boxing is at present very personal. Each individual will have a different array of weaknesses, strengths, and defenses when dealing with infection. The formula is substantially the same for all infectious diseases; your risk for serious disease increases with weakened immune systems, chronic or acute illness in critical organs of your body, physical and emotional stress, and historic period (because all of your trunk functions are weakening and slowing down).

The boxing with viruses is thus a personal battle. Information technology is betwixt the individual and the virus. Humans have the ability to enlist additional help, mainly with your md. This is what physicians train to do – deal with each private and their health issues. Governments have NO identify in this boxing.

Humans tin influence the factors that will increase your risk. Viral load is always the key. Then, poor building maintenance and sanitation can increase your run a risk. Lockdowns tin can increase your risk. Putting already ill people in with at-risk people Really increases their risks. Only, the virus just acts like a virus.

Maybe during the by few months you sympathize your risks and potential outcomes. But, sometimes information technology may not always be clear because of all of the media hype. I tin endeavor to make it clearer for you.

I, personally, do not like to dwell on morbidity. Unfortunately, viruses tin cause serious affliction in some people and they may non survive. Fifty-fifty rhinovirus, which is considered pretty mild, can pb to death in a person who cannot handle either the virus or the opportunistic infections that may ascend. The media has so hyped the deaths that I almost consider it a taboo subject; well, well-nigh. But, we tin learn from it and nosotros should. Since the hype has been about how everyone will dice from this, we can truly learn a lot from the bloodshed data and your risk every bit a younger person. And so, here it goes.

Of form, nosotros all know about influenza. Influenza is not a bad word considering we take go used to it. In December of 2017, the World Wellness Organization quietly updated their estimate for the annual deaths due to influenza to 650,000. For several years, they had reported between 250,000-500,000 deaths annually, and this included all related deaths, respiratory and nonrespiratory. In the new report, the 650,000 decease figure was based upon a narrower definition using respiratory causes linked to influenza. Compare the WHO estimate for the annual toll from influenza to the electric current world situation with coronavirus.

Coronavirus has been around certainly as long as influenza, just it was never given much attention even though it is responsible for a fair portion of the common common cold. The underlying panic that has been induced since March has been directed at trying to convince people that somehow this virus will kill anyone who contracts the disease. Many people have bought into the hype simply the facts exercise not back up the message. At-risk groups are exactly that, at risk, but they are an farthermost minority of the population. Additionally, immunity is a critical gene – the more than good for you people experience the affliction, the LESS the risk for the at-hazard groups. The healthy people (that is mainly you, the younger generation) can protect the at-take chances people.

The fact is that this virus is acting just like any other Upper Respiratory Infection (URI), despite the efforts to endeavor and convince people that it is much worse than flu. To some at-risk people, specially the elderly with poor wellness and impoverished people who live in hard conditions with poor access to health care, it is very serious. But for healthy people inside the population, peculiarly y’all, information technology is a crash-land in the road.

No one wants to be ill, but most people experience mild illness, become healthy, and motility on. In experiencing and recovering from this virus, people are developing important antibodies to help not only themselves, just others in social club. These people are the heroes of our society. All should be feted. Once enough people take experienced this virus, it volition begin to wane, but volition likely not disappear. Information technology volition maintain a baseline level of activity and quite likely join the other seasonal virus strains of influenza and rhinovirus. Possibly next year it will return, maybe not. If plenty people have experienced the disease, the chances of an firsthand render are slim. Side by side year, mayhap it will exist influenza or some other virus causing a pandemic (is rhinovirus due to become a problem?).

But, as a younger, healthy person, you are the key. It is time to intermission the myths that have been so eroding our society concerning this affliction. The following and all subsequent information is from the U.S. CDC ( period/andsex) concerning overall mortality in the U.Southward. since February i, 2020, that is, the total number of people who have died from all causes compared to those who have died from COVID-19 or related causes.

What nosotros can see first is that for the entire U.South. population, overall nearly 0.v% of Americans accept died over that time, which is pretty much consequent with a modern death rate of about one-i.5% each year. As one would expect, at that place is a direct age correlation to the take chances of dying. Over the age of 65, the deaths increase in each historic period group and all of the groups higher up age 65 are to a higher place the national percent of 0.49%.

Retrieve, the average life expectancy in the US is 78 years. Below the historic period of 65, the number of deaths within each age group decreases chop-chop with decreasing age. In the U.Southward for all ages, of the almost 1000000 people who have died from all causes during this 6-month period, less than 9% have died from COVID-xix.

COVID is Not the major cause of death in the U.S, despite what you may be inundated with daily by the press on a minute-past-infinitesimal footing. In fact, it is not even close to the major cause. Further, school historic period children experience less than ane% of their deaths in their age group from COVID. That means that over 99% of school historic period children experience death from something OTHER than COVID!! Even college anile people experience a petty more 1% from COVID.

In the U.S. since February, there take been almost 260,000 confirmed cases of COVID-xix in the 0-17 age range (the actual case number is likely much, much higher, every bit you are probably aware). From the 0-14 age group data, in that location were 45 deaths. Let’due south assume that a total of 100 deaths can be figured for the 0-17 age group (lamentable, the data presented by the CDC is not always correlated exactly to historic period grouping all of the fourth dimension; they change their reporting structures, for some reason, probably because they contract out for their information). For an assumed 100 deaths in the 0-17 historic period group and 260,000 confirmed cases, that is a lethality rate of about 0.04% (the current lethality rate for the entire population based upon confirmed cases is about iii% (nigh 100x more); if yous calculate in the 10x factor from serology studies, it is 0.iii%), if the 10x factor for actual cases holds in your age group, the lethality rate is now 0.004%.

For people in the driving age, you are more likely to die from an machine accident than from COVID. Virtually all of the deaths in this historic period group were with children who likewise had serious underlying medical conditions. By comparison to the last serious influenza season, 2017-2018,
The New York Times, Oct. 1, 2018, reported that there were 180 deaths from influenza amongst young children and teenagers during that by flavor.

While information technology is difficult to draw a comparing with such low numbers, information technology certainly looks like young people handle this coronavirus pretty well, certainly equal to flu, if not ameliorate. Certainly in 2017 there were no lockdowns, distancing, masking, schoolhouse closures, border closures, or other disruptions. Only you lot, the younger generation, are dealing with information technology well! I tin can relate, I experienced the Hong Kong flu in 1968 which was more lethal than this virus. It was not fun and I call back beingness sick, but I survived and my immune system became the stronger for it. I did miss some days of school but I have no recollection of the school closing.

Next, we can see that the population that has taken the big hit is the elderly population. About 84% of COVID-nineteen deaths are from the over 65 age group. If you gene in the over 55 age group, you lot now account for over 97% of the deaths (this is my domain). A large percentage, nigh 50% worldwide, of these deaths occurred in care facilities (is that an oxymoron?). Simply, what is fifty-fifty as significant is that looking at the overall mortality in these elderly age groups, COVID deaths still only account for almost ten% of all deaths.

Recollect, the life expectancy in the United states is about 78 years. So, even for elderly people, there are other greater risks for death besides COVID. The U.S. is not unique in terms of these percentages; the remainder of the globe is reporting similar numbers. The U.S. also has a society with a much higher percentage of at-risk people dealing with obesity (34% adult obesity), hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, lung disease, etc.

In the
New York Times
commodity cited above, they also reported that 90% of deaths from flu during that season were in the over 65 age group. So, the 2017 influenza pandemic possibly even took a greater toll in the over 65 group. We have vaccines and antiviral medicines for influenza, yet nonetheless the toll was the same.

The data on bloodshed by each land in the U.Southward. is very interesting indeed. The following table shows the bloodshed rates in the states with the highest mortality numbers. Find that for New York, there is a separation betwixt New York City, and New York Country. If y’all include New Bailiwick of jersey, and most of the damage was from Newark and surrounding areas, essentially a part of the New York metropolitan area, you get a very revealing moving picture. The mortality inflicted in this surface area of the country was devastating. Further, much of it was likely produced by the lockdowns when the virus was forced into the weakened populations. The mortality rate rose chop-chop starting ii weeks after lockdowns and peaked in mid-Apr.

California has experienced the highest number of overall mortalities, which would be expected considering they have the highest population. Just check their COVID-xix death numbers. California has experienced a percentage of deaths from COVID far below that of New York, Michigan, New Jersey, and Massachusetts. California has experienced virtually half-dozen% overall mortality from COVID compared to almost 38% for New York Metropolis and xviii% for New York State. Look at the deportment taken by New York State and City in terms of how they dealt with the virus and effort to justify the statement past Dr. Fauci that they “did it correctly.” Is he aware of the data?

By contrast, permit’south look at the states with the lowest morbidity data. The following graph shows how these states fared with overall mortality compared to COVID-19. Clearly, COVID was a minor player in these states. Please note that Alaska, Hawaii, and Wyoming experienced a few deaths, simply they practice not ascend from the baseline on the graph.

Does COVID want to go only after New Yorkers or others? No! There are many factors that go into the differences in these numbers. Population densities, individual wellness, local sanitation, poor living conditions (such as tenements), population pedagogy, local policies, health care availability, and poverty, all play a function.

Lockdowns are devastating in a place like New York Urban center. But, if people stay at home in Wyoming, you have a practiced chance of slowing infection and reducing the viral load on each individual; merely even in Wyoming, an elderly person with underlying weather condition is at serious chance of death if they go infected. So, putting sick people into residuum homes is not advisable ANYWHERE (fifty-fifty though that was what was done in New York). That part of the equation does not alter. What is articulate is that you cannot apply a i-size-fits-all policy across the nation. Yet, authorities have tried to impose their view of risk restrictions on everyone.

Clearly, you tin see from the Government’s own data that you are the group of people who are capable of bearing the immunity load. The all-time advice that I can give is:

  1. Keep yourself informed from multiple sources. Try to find the reliable information and test it. Recognize how the media has been corrupted and cannot be depended on to perform their expected function in our lodge.
  2. Recognize how the governments, at all levels, have mostly screwed this up (generally speaking that is, there are plenty of notable exceptions just far too few).
  3. The electoral power is in your hands. The under 38 age group in the U.S. represents about 50% of the population. You take the power to make the bad politicians pay the toll for the misery inflicted. Do not exist swayed by tribal loyalty. It is that tribal loyalty that has given the politicians the belief that they tin can become abroad with anything.

Look at some examples of what the older generation has done in the past few months to upend the hereafter:

  • Nosotros take created a fright and panic for a disease that falls into the normal realm of URI diseases that are experienced by humans.
  • We have totally disrupted the lives and stability of billions of people over this panic.
  • We have disrupted what should be normal medical functions in social club. Hospitals turn abroad people if they practice not have COVID-nineteen. Is this really following the Hippocratic Adjuration? Doctors, nurses, and other healthcare professionals accept generally been trying to exercise their best under difficult circumstances. Merely, they accept had things imposed on them likewise.
  • Countless Autocrats accept now risen, so-chosen leaders, who now impose restrictions on complimentary societies unprecedented in history, without openly showing the sources of their decisions, and who themselves suffer no consequences and do not experience the results of their decisions.
  • We have thrown aside decades of learning on how to handle viral epidemics to revert to ancient superstitions. In short, we have regressed.
  • Nosotros have virtually disintegrated normal societal operation where people cannot fifty-fifty brainstorm to socialize outside of their habitation environments. People snitch on others and openly attack people.
  • We have destroyed people’s ability to fend for themselves. Livelihoods have been taken away. There is a faux choice in choosing between economy and health – this is a myth being given much too much life. Both economy and health are interlinked. That is why it is chosen “livelihood.” Our existence is defined by what we do and how nosotros choose to live our lives. That is living and it separates united states of america from other species. Health by itself, with no other substance, does not equate to actual living. The contrary is also true. Dr. Stephen Hawking was stricken by ALS at an early age. He lived the bulk of his life bars to a wheelchair, unable to movement or communicate without technology. But, he lived almost a normal life span and contributed immensely to not simply his field but to the human feel.
  • Nosotros take created an environs where people fright every other person. Social distancing has become social phobia (This is why I prefer the term “physical distancing”). Social interaction or wellness is another false option existence presented to create fear.
  • Nosotros accept essentially eliminated what defines humanity. That is, the arts, culture, social engagement, sports, etc. have all become taboo because people are panicked that somehow they will all drib expressionless. Peak world orchestras have resorted to demonstrating that playing their instruments is non going to cause the audition to succumb. I have played the trumpet since I was 10 years old. I have never transmitted a disease to another person from playing the trumpet. Anyone who knows how these instruments actually piece of work would empathize. Yet, the panic has been instilled.
  • Immature people, your hopes and dreams for the future certainly take been crushed. No school experience, no colleges, no learning, no culture, no sports, no socialization, no jobs, and a consummate fright of life across, if you can call it life. Many are forced back into their parents’ homes and have sacrificed their independence. Speaking for myself, if that had happened to me, I do not know what I would have done.
  • We have allow the media and social media platforms control the messaging while their profits increase and the rest of the society crumbles. Are they giving back whatsoever of their profits to the people who have lost during this catamenia?
  • People have chosen political sides, whether rightly or wrongly only considering that is their tribe. A medical status that tin can afflict anyone at any fourth dimension has suddenly become an The states versus Them symbol. This has not just worsened the state of affairs in the US simply has propagated bad policies.
  • We accept witnessed unprecedented levels of censorship imposed on whatever dissenting voices. Rather than doing what the U.S. was founded on, a principle of open debate and determination-making, legal processes, and private liberty, officials and media have joined together in an unholy brotherhood to stamp out any dissent. Even when the dissent is correct.

It is clear that most governments, at many levels, have no clue what they were or are doing or how to retreat. Of course, they are in over their heads and to admit any mistake is unthinkable; therefore, they must go on with the sinking ship (while safely sitting in the lifeboat next to the ship). They are also panicked. They are panicked because if anyone dies, they think that they will be blamed; such is the fear that has been induced during this. Much of the government actions were out of panic and fear and ignorance and those deportment did a lot of damage. But, this is a virus. It is a working of nature and evolution with which nosotros are all a part. The person who can best protect yous, is Y’all, not your governor or some other official! Anybody has to recognize the value of their immune system and work to strengthen it.

We are heading in a direction where besides many people are willing to take living a life in a bubble out of fear. Well, excuse me but that is non human being life. If those individuals want to live their life in a bubble, that is their pick; build your bubble but you had better non choose plastic because coronavirus survives on plastic. Perhaps a glass bubble is skillful; but what if the drinking glass breaks? They will choose their risks and how they desire to live their lives. Just, that pick should not be imposed onto others either by individuals or governments.

Over half of the United states of america population is under the age of 40. Withal, the country is run past a agglomeration of old-timers who take lost bear on with what it means to lead all of the people. Where is your representation for the time to come, young people? My plea is for the younger generation to step up and start to take charge. It is time to ship the ruling generation into retirement – and I mean EVERYONE. For several decades, people accept avoided politics out of distaste.

Further, people accept tended to ignore what the politicians are really doing to the country with the laws that they pass. Much of our problems with the press today can be traced dorsum almost iv decades ago to the weakening of antitrust laws. How did that happen? The large corporations wanted more through mergers and acquisitions and they made sizable entrada contributions and guess what, they got what they wanted. Well, this is now what we become equally a result.

If yous want a hereafter, your generation needs to starting time getting the all-time minds behind leading. Your time to come and the future generations of humans now depend on information technology.

Roger W. Koops

Roger W. Koops

Roger West. Koops holds a Ph.D. in Chemistry from the University of California, Riverside too as Master and Bachelor degrees from Western Washington University.  He worked in the Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Industry for over 25 years.

Earlier retiring in 2017, he spent 12 years equally a Consultant focused on Quality Assurance/Control and problems related to Regulatory Compliance.

He has authored or co-authored several papers in the areas of pharmaceutical technology and chemistry.

Get notified of new manufactures from Roger W. Koops and AIER.


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