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Cardinal Findings

California voters take now received their post ballots, and the Nov 8 general election has entered its final stage. Amid rising prices and economical doubt—besides as deep partisan divisions over social and political problems—Californians are processing a great bargain of information to help them choose state constitutional officers and land legislators and to make policy decisions about state propositions. The 2022 midterm election also features a closely divided Congress, with the likelihood that a few races in California may decide which party controls the United states House.

These are among the key findings of a statewide survey on country and national bug conducted from October 14 to 23 by the Public Policy Institute of California:

  • Many Californians have negative perceptions of their personal finances and the Us economic system.
    Lxx-six percent rate the nation’southward economic system as “not and so skillful” or “poor.” 30-nine percent say their finances are “worse off” today than a year ago. Xl-seven percent say that things in California are going in the right direction, while 33 percentage think things in the US are going in the right direction; partisans differ in their overall outlook.→

  • figure - Californians name jobs, the economy, and inflation as the top issue

    Among likely voters, 55 percent would vote for Gavin Newsom and 36 per centum would vote for Brian Dahle if the governor’s election were today. Partisans are deeply divided in their choices. Sixty percent are very or fairly closely following news virtually the governor’s race. 60-two per centum are satisfied with the candidate choices in the governor’southward ballot.→



  • When likely voters are read the ballot title and labels, 34 percent would vote yeah on Proposition 26 (sports betting at tribal casinos), 26 percentage would vote yep on Suggestion 27 (online sports gambling),
    and 41 percent would vote yes on Proffer 30 (reducing greenhouse gases). Most likely voters say they are not personally interested in sports betting, and 48 percent think information technology would exist a “bad thing” if it became legal in the state. Fewer than one-half of likely voters say the vote outcome of Propositions 26, 27, or thirty is very important to them.→



  • 50-six percentage of likely voters would support the Democratic candidate in their Usa Business firm race if the election were today. Sixty-one percent say the issue of abortion rights is very of import in their vote for Congress this yr; Democrats are far more likely than Republicans or independents to hold this view. About one-half are “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about voting for Congress this year; 54 percent of Republicans and Democrats, and 41 percentage of independents, are highly enthusiastic this year.→
  • 40-five percentage of Californians and twoscore percentage of probable voters are satisfied with the way that democracy is working in the United states of america.
    Republicans are far less likely than Democrats and independents to hold this positive view. At that place is rare partisan consensus on one topic: majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and independents are pessimistic that Americans with different political views tin can nonetheless come up together and work out their differences.→
  • Majorities of California adults and likely voters approve of Governor Gavin Newsom and President Joe Biden. About four in 10 or more California adults and probable voters approve of United states Senator Dianne Feinstein and US Senator Alex Padilla. These approval ratings vary across partisan groups. Approval of the land legislature is higher than blessing of the U.s. Congress.→


Overall Mood

With less than two weeks to go until what is set to be a highly consequential midterm election, California adults are divided on whether the land is generally headed in the right direction (47%) or wrong direction (48%); a majority of likely voters (54%) think the state is headed in the wrong management (43% right direction). Like shares held this view last month (wrong direction: 44% adults, 49% likely voters; correct management: l% adults, 48% likely voters). Today, at that place is a broad partisan separate: seven in x Democrats are optimistic about the direction of the state, while 91 percent of Republicans and 59 pct of independents are pessimistic. Majorities of residents in the Primal Valley and Orange/San Diego say the state is going in the wrong management, while a majority in the San Francisco Bay Area say right management; adults elsewhere are divided. Across demographic groups, Californians ages eighteen to 34 (60%), Asian Americans (52%), higher graduates (52%), renters (52%), and women (52%) are the simply groups in which a majority are optimistic about California’s management.

Californians are much more pessimistic about the management of the state than they are about the management of the country. Solid majorities of adults (62%) and likely voters (71%) say the U.s.a. is going in the wrong direction, and majorities have held this view since September 2021. One in three or fewer adults (33%) and likely voters (25%) recall the country is going in the right direction. Majorities across all demographic groups and partisan groups, as well as beyond regions, are pessimistic well-nigh the direction of the United States.

The country of the economic system and inflation are likely to play a disquisitional role in the upcoming election, and nearly four in x adults (39%) and likely voters (43%) say they and their family are worse off financially than they were a yr agone. Similar shares say they are financially in nearly the same spot (43% adults, 44% likely voters). The share who feel they are worse off has risen slightly amid likely voters since May, merely is similar amidst adults (37% adults, 36% likely voters). Fewer than 2 in x Californians say they are better off than they were i year ago (17% adults, 13% likely voters). A broad partisan carve up exists: nigh Democrats and independents say their financial situation is about the same as a year ago, while solid majorities of Republicans say they are worse off. Regionally, well-nigh one-half in the San Francisco Bay Surface area and Los Angeles say they are most the same, while one-half in the Central Valley say they are worse off; residents elsewhere are divided between being worse off and the same. Across demographic groups, pluralities say they are either financially about the same as concluding twelvemonth or worse off, with the exception of African Americans (51% about the same, 33% worse off, 16% meliorate off) and Asian Americans (51% about the aforementioned, 27% worse off, 20% meliorate off). The shares saying they are worse off decline equally educational attainment increases.

With persistent inflation and concerns about a possible recession in the future, an overwhelming bulk of Californians believe the U.s. economy is in not so practiced (43% adults, twoscore% likely voters) or poor (33% adults, 36% probable voters) shape. Near a quarter of adults (3% excellent, 20% skilful) and likely voters (2% excellent, 23% good) experience positively almost the national economy. Strong majorities beyond partisan groups feel negatively, only Republicans and independents are much more probable than Democrats to say the economy is in poor shape. Solid majorities across the state’s major regions besides every bit all demographic groups say the economy is in not and then adept or poor shape. In a contempo ABC News/Washington Post poll, 24 percent (3% excellent, 21% practiced) of adults nationwide felt positively about the United states economic system, while 74 per centum (36% not so good, 38% poor) expressed negative views.


Gubernatorial Election

Six in ten probable voters say they are following news about the 2022 governor’southward race very (25%) or adequately (35%) closely—a share that has risen from half just a month agone (17% very, 33% fairly). This finding is somewhat like to October 2018, when 68 percent said this (28% very, forty% closely) a month earlier the previous gubernatorial election. Today, majorities beyond partisan, demographic, and regional groups say they are post-obit news almost the gubernatorial ballot either very or fairly closely. The shares maxim they are following the news very closely is highest among residents in Republican districts (39%), Republicans (30%), whites (29%), and adults with incomes of $xl,000 to $79,999 (29%). Older likely voters (27%) are slightly more than likely than younger probable voters (21%) to say they are following the news closely.

Autonomous incumbent Gavin Newsom is ahead of Republican Brian Dahle (55% to 36%) among likely voters, while few say they would not vote, would vote for neither, or don’t know who they would vote for in the governor’southward race. The share supporting the reelection of the governor was similar a month ago (58% Newsom, 31% Dahle). Today, Newsom enjoys the back up of most Democrats (91%), while most Republicans (86%) support Dahle; Newsom has an edge over Dahle amidst independent likely voters (47% Newsom, 37% Dahle). Across the country’due south regions, ii in 3 in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles support Newsom, as do nearly half in the Inland Empire and Orange/San Diego; likely voters in the Central Valley are split up. Newsom leads in all demographic groups, with the exception of men (45% Newsom, 44% Dahle) and those with a high schoolhouse diploma simply (46% Newsom, 49% Dahle). The share supporting Newsom grows every bit educational attainment increases (46% high school only, 56% some college, sixty% higher graduates), while information technology decreases with ascent income (64% less than $40,000, 56% $forty,000 to $79,999, 52% $80,000 or more).

A solid bulk of probable voters (62%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the Nov 8 election, while nearly three in ten (32%) are not satisfied. Shares expressing satisfaction take increased somewhat from a month ago (53%) and were similar prior to the 2018 gubernatorial election (60% Oct 2018). Today, a solid majority of Democrats (79%) and independents (61%) say they are satisfied, compared to fewer than half of Republicans (44%). Majorities across demographic groups say they are satisfied, and notably, women (68%) are more likely than men (56%) to say this. Majorities across the country’s regions say they are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the upcoming gubernatorial ballot.


State Propositions 26, 27, and xxx

In the upcoming November 8 election, there will be seven state propositions for voters. Due to time constraints, our survey only asked most three ballot measures: Propositions 26, 27, and 30. For each, we read the proffer number, ballot, and ballot label. Ii of the country ballot measures were likewise included in the September survey (Propositions 27 and 30), while Proposition 26 was not.

If the election were held today, 34 percent of likely voters would vote “yes,” 57 percent would vote “no,” and 9 percentage are unsure of how they would vote on Proffer 26—Allows In-Person Roulette, Dice, Game, Sports Wagering on Tribal Lands. This mensurate would allow in-person sports betting at racetracks and tribal casinos, requiring that racetracks and casinos offering sports betting make certain payments to the state to support country regulatory costs. It likewise allows roulette and dice games at tribal casinos and adds a new fashion to enforce certain state gambling laws. At that place is partisan agreement on Prop 26: fewer than iv in 10 Democrats, Republicans, and independents would vote “aye.” Moreover, less than a majority across all regions and demographic groups—with the exception of likely voters ages 18 to 44 (51% yeah, 44% no)—would vote “yes.”

If the ballot were held today, 26 per centum of likely voters would vote “aye,” 67 percent would vote “no,” and viii percent are unsure of how they would vote on Proffer 27—Allows Online and Mobile Sports Wagering Outside Tribal Lands. This citizens’ initiative would allow Indian tribes and affiliated businesses to operate online and mobile sports wagering outside tribal lands. Strong majorities across partisan groups would vote “no” on Prop 27. The share voting “yep” has decreased since a calendar month ago (34% September). Today, fewer than three in ten across partisan groups would vote “yep” on Prop 27. Moreover, fewer than 4 in x across regions, gender, racial/ethnic, education, and income groups would vote “yes.” Likely voters ages eighteen to 44 (41%) are far more likely than older likely voters ages 45 and above (19%) to say they would vote “aye.”

If the election were held today, 41 pct of likely voters would vote “yes,” 52 percent would vote “no,” and seven percent are unsure of how they would vote on Proposition 30—Provides Funding for Programs to Reduce Air Pollution and Prevent Wildfires by Increasing Tax on Personal Income over $2 Million. This citizens’ initiative would increase taxes on Californians earning more than than $2 million annually and allocate that taxation revenue to zero-emission vehicle buy incentives, vehicle charging stations, and wildfire prevention. The share maxim “yes” on Prop xxx has decreased from 55 percent in our September survey (notation: since September, Governor Newsom has been featured in “no on Prop xxx” commercials). Today, unlike Prop 26 and Prop 27, partisan opinions are divided on Prop xxx: 61 percent of Democrats would vote “yeah,” compared to far fewer Republicans (15%) and independents (38%). Beyond regions, and among men and women, support falls short of a majority (36% men, 45% women). Fewer than half across racial/ethnic groups say they would vote “yeah” (39% whites, 42% Latinos, 46% other racial/ethnic groups). Only over half of likely voters with incomes under $twoscore,000 (52%) would vote “yeah,” compared to fewer in higher-income groups (42% $40,000 to $79,999, 36% $80,000 or more). Nearly half of likely voters ages 18 to 44 (49%) would vote “aye,” compared to 37 percentage of older likely voters.

Fewer than one-half of probable voters say the event of each of these land propositions is very important to them. Today, 21 percent of likely voters say the consequence of Prop 26 is very important, 31 percent say the result of Prop 27 is very important, and 42 percent say the outcome of Prop xxx is very important. The shares saying the outcomes are very important to them have remained similar to a month ago for Prop 27 (29%) and Prop 30 (42%). Today, when it comes to the importance of the outcome of Prop 26, i in iv or fewer across partisan groups say it is very important to them. About one in three across partisan groups say the outcome of Prop 27 is very of import to them. Fewer than half across partisan groups say the issue of Prop 30 is very important to them.


Congressional Elections

When asked how they would vote if the 2022 ballot for the US House of Representatives were held today, 56 percent of probable voters say they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate, while 39 percent would vote for or lean toward the Republican candidate. In September, a similar share of likely voters preferred the Democratic candidate (60% Democrat/lean Democrat, 34% Republican/lean Republican). Today, overwhelming majorities of partisans support their party’s candidate, while independents are divided (50% Democrat/lean Democrat, 44% Republican/lean Republican). Democratic candidates are preferred by a 26-signal margin in Autonomous-held districts, while Republican candidates are preferred past a 23-signal margin in Republican-held districts. In the x competitive California districts every bit divers past the Cook Political Report, the Democratic candidate is preferred by a 22-bespeak margin (54% to 32%).

Abortion is some other prominent result in this election. When asked almost the importance of ballgame rights, 61 percentage of likely voters say the consequence is very important in determining their vote for Congress and some other 20 percent say it is somewhat important; just 17 pct say it is not too or non at all important. Among partisans, an overwhelming majority of Democrats (78%) and 55 percent of independents say it is very important, compared to 43 percent of Republicans. Majorities across regions and all demographic groups—with the exception of men (49% very important)—say abortion rights are very important when making their choice amidst candidates for Congress.

With the decision-making party in Congress hanging in the residue, 51 percent of likely voters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress this twelvemonth; another 29 percent are somewhat enthusiastic while 19 percent are either not likewise or not at all enthusiastic. In October 2018 before the last midterm election, a similar 53 percent of probable voters were extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress (25% extremely, 28% very, 28% somewhat, x% not too, eight% not at all). Today, Democrats and Republicans have well-nigh equal levels of enthusiasm, while independents are much less likely to exist extremely or very enthusiastic. Half or more across regions are at to the lowest degree very enthusiastic, with the exceptions of likely voters in Los Angeles (44%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (43%). At least half across demographic groups are highly enthusiastic, with the exceptions of likely voters earning $40,000 to $79,999 annually (48%), women (47%), Latinos (43%), those with a high school diploma or less (42%), renters (42%), and 18- to 44-twelvemonth-olds (37%).


Republic and the Political Divide

As Californians prepare to vote in the upcoming midterm election, fewer than half of adults and probable voters are satisfied with the manner republic is working in the The states—and few are very satisfied. Satisfaction was higher in our February survey when 53 per centum of adults and 48 percent of likely voters were satisfied with republic in America. Today, half of Democrats and about iv in x independents are satisfied, compared to about ane in five Republicans. Notably, four in ten Republicans are not at all satisfied. Across regions, half of residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (52%) and the Inland Empire (50%) are satisfied, compared to fewer elsewhere. Across demographic groups, fewer than half are satisfied, with the exception of Latinos (56%), those with a high schoolhouse degree or less (55%), and those making less than $forty,000 (53%).

In addition to the lack of satisfaction with the way democracy is working, Californians are divided about whether Americans of different political positions tin can still come together and work out their differences. Forty-nine per centum are optimistic, while 46 pct are pessimistic. Optimism has been similar in more recent years, just has decreased 7 points since we first asked this question in September 2017 (56%). In September 2020, only earlier the 2020 general election, Californians were also divided (47% optimistic, 49% pessimistic).

Today, in a rare moment of bipartisan agreement, about iv in x Democrats, Republicans, and independents are optimistic that Americans of different political views volition be able to come together. Beyond regions, nearly half in Orange/San Diego, the Inland Empire, and the San Francisco Bay Area are optimistic. Across demographic groups, only the following groups have a majority or more who are optimistic: African Americans and Latinos (61% each), those with a high school diploma or less (63%), and those with household incomes under $40,000 (61%). Notably, in 2017, half or more across parties, regions, and demographic groups were optimistic.


Approval Ratings

With near two weeks to go before Governor Newsom’s bid for reelection, a bulk of Californians (54%) and likely voters (52%) approve of the fashion he is handling his job, while fewer disapprove (33% adults, 45% likely voters). Approving was nearly identical in September (52% adults, 55% likely voters) and has been l percent or more since January 2020. Today, about eight in x Democrats—compared to about half of independents and about one in x Republicans—approve of Governor Newsom. Half or more across regions corroborate of Newsom, except in the Key Valley (42%). Across demographic groups, almost half or more approve of how Governor Newsom is handling his task.

With all 80 state assembly positions and half of land senate seats up for election, fewer than half of adults (49%) and likely voters (43%) approve of the mode that the California Legislature is handling its job. Views are deeply divided forth partisan lines; approval is highest in the San Francisco Bay Area and lowest in Orange/San Diego. Nearly half beyond racial/ethnic groups approve, and approval is much higher among younger Californians.

Majorities of California adults (53%) and likely voters (52%) approve of the way President Biden is handling his task, while fewer disapprove (43% adults, 47% likely voters). Approval is similar to September (53% adults and likely voters), and Biden’south approval rating among adults has been at 50 pct or higher since nosotros first asked this question in January 2021. Today, about eight in x Democrats corroborate of Biden’southward job performance, compared to about iv in ten independents and one in x Republicans. Approving is higher in the San Francisco Bay Surface area and Los Angeles than in the Inland Empire, Orange/San Diego, and the Cardinal Valley. About half or more than across demographic groups corroborate of President Biden, with the exception of those with some college education (44%).

Approving of Congress remains low, with fewer than four in ten adults (37%) and likely voters (29%) approving. Approval of Congress among adults has been below 40 percent for all of 2022 after seeing a brief run above forty percent for all of 2021. Democrats are far more probable than Republicans to approve of Congress. Fewer than one-half beyond regions and demographic groups approve of Congress.

US Senator Alex Padilla is on the California ballot twice this November—once for the balance of Vice President Harris’s term and once for reelection. Senator Padilla has the approval of 46 percent of adults and 48 percent of likely voters (adults: 26% disapprove, 29% don’t know; likely voters: 31% disapprove, 22% don’t know). Approval in March was at 44 percent for adults and 39 per centum for probable voters. Today, Padilla’s approval rating is much higher among Democrats than independents and Republicans. Across regions, about half in the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, and the Inland Empire corroborate of the US senator, compared to four in ten in Orange/San Diego and 1 in iii in the Central Valley. Beyond demographic groups, about half or more approve among women, younger adults, African Americans, Asian Americans, and Latinos. Views are like across pedagogy and income groups, with merely fewer than half blessing.

US Senator Dianne Feinstein—who is non on the California ballot this Nov—has the approval of 41 per centum of adults and likely voters (adults: 42% disapprove, 17% don’t know; probable voters: 52% disapprove, 7% don’t know). Approval in March was at 41 percent for adults and 36 percentage for likely voters. Today, Feinstein’southward approval rating is far higher among Democrats and independents than Republicans. Across regions, approval reaches a bulk just in the San Francisco Bay Area. Across demographic groups, approval reaches a majority only amid African Americans

Topics

2022 Election COVID-19 Economy Wellness & Prophylactic Net Political Landscape Statewide Survey

Source: https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-october-2022/

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