California voters accept at present received their mail ballots, and the Nov 8 general election has entered its final phase. Amongst ascension prices and economic dubiety—every bit well every bit deep partisan divisions over social and political bug—Californians are processing a keen deal of information to help them choose state ramble officers and country legislators and to make policy decisions nigh state propositions. The 2022 midterm election besides features a closely divided Congress, with the likelihood that a few races in California may determine which political party controls the United states of america House.
These are amid the key findings of a statewide survey on state and national issues conducted from Oct 14 to 23 by the Public Policy Institute of California:
Many Californians have negative perceptions of their personal finances and the U.s.a. economy.
Lxx-vi pct rate the nation’s economic system equally “not so good” or “poor.” Thirty-nine percent say their finances are “worse off” today than a year agone. Forty-seven percent say that things in California are going in the right direction, while 33 percent think things in the U.s. are going in the right direction; partisans differ in their overall outlook.→
Among likely voters, 55 percent would vote for Gavin Newsom and 36 percentage would vote for Brian Dahle if the governor’s election were today. Partisans are deeply divided in their choices. Threescore percent are very or fairly closely following news about the governor’south race. Threescore-2 pct are satisfied with the candidate choices in the governor’s election.→
When likely voters are read the ballot title and labels, 34 percent would vote yes on Proposition 26 (sports betting at tribal casinos), 26 percent would vote yes on Proposition 27 (online sports gambling),
and 41 percent would vote yes on Proposition 30 (reducing greenhouse gases). Most likely voters say they are not personally interested in sports betting, and 48 percent think it would exist a “bad thing” if it became legal in the state. Fewer than one-half of likely voters say the vote outcome of Propositions 26, 27, or 30 is very important to them.→
Fifty-six percentage of probable voters would support the Democratic candidate in their US House race if the ballot were today. 60-one percent say the issue of abortion rights is very important in their vote for Congress this yr; Democrats are far more likely than Republicans or independents to concord this view. Almost half are “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about voting for Congress this yr; 54 per centum of Republicans and Democrats, and 41 percent of independents, are highly enthusiastic this year.→
Twoscore-v percent of Californians and twoscore percent of likely voters are satisfied with the way that democracy is working in the United States.
Republicans are far less likely than Democrats and independents to concur this positive view. There is rare partisan consensus on 1 topic: majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and independents are pessimistic that Americans with dissimilar political views tin nevertheless come together and work out their differences.→
- Majorities of California adults and probable voters approve of Governor Gavin Newsom and President Joe Biden. Almost four in ten or more than California adults and likely voters approve of US Senator Dianne Feinstein and US Senator Alex Padilla. These approval ratings vary across partisan groups. Approving of the state legislature is higher than approval of the US Congress.→
With less than two weeks to go until what is prepare to be a highly consequential midterm ballot, California adults are divided on whether the land is more often than not headed in the correct direction (47%) or wrong direction (48%); a majority of likely voters (54%) recall the land is headed in the wrong direction (43% right direction). Similar shares held this view last month (wrong direction: 44% adults, 49% likely voters; right management: 50% adults, 48% likely voters). Today, there is a wide partisan separate: seven in ten Democrats are optimistic nigh the direction of the state, while 91 per centum of Republicans and 59 pct of independents are pessimistic. Majorities of residents in the Primal Valley and Orange/San Diego say the state is going in the wrong management, while a majority in the San Francisco Bay Area say correct management; adults elsewhere are divided. Across demographic groups, Californians ages 18 to 34 (60%), Asian Americans (52%), college graduates (52%), renters (52%), and women (52%) are the merely groups in which a bulk are optimistic nearly California’due south management.
Californians are much more than pessimistic about the direction of the land than they are about the management of the state. Solid majorities of adults (62%) and likely voters (71%) say the Us is going in the wrong management, and majorities accept held this view since September 2021. One in three or fewer adults (33%) and likely voters (25%) think the country is going in the right direction. Majorities across all demographic groups and partisan groups, every bit well as beyond regions, are pessimistic about the management of the Usa.
The country of the economy and inflation are likely to play a critical role in the upcoming election, and about 4 in ten adults (39%) and likely voters (43%) say they and their family are worse off financially than they were a year agone. Similar shares say they are financially in nearly the aforementioned spot (43% adults, 44% likely voters). The share who experience they are worse off has risen slightly amid likely voters since May, but is similar among adults (37% adults, 36% likely voters). Fewer than two in ten Californians say they are better off than they were one year ago (17% adults, xiii% probable voters). A wide partisan divide exists: about Democrats and independents say their financial situation is almost the aforementioned as a yr ago, while solid majorities of Republicans say they are worse off. Regionally, about one-half in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles say they are nigh the same, while half in the Primal Valley say they are worse off; residents elsewhere are divided between existence worse off and the aforementioned. Across demographic groups, pluralities say they are either financially about the same every bit terminal year or worse off, with the exception of African Americans (51% about the same, 33% worse off, 16% better off) and Asian Americans (51% about the same, 27% worse off, 20% ameliorate off). The shares saying they are worse off decline as educational attainment increases.
With persistent inflation and concerns near a possible recession in the future, an overwhelming majority of Californians believe the United states of america economy is in not so good (43% adults, 40% likely voters) or poor (33% adults, 36% likely voters) shape. Near a quarter of adults (3% excellent, xx% expert) and probable voters (2% excellent, 23% skilful) feel positively about the national economy. Strong majorities across partisan groups feel negatively, but Republicans and independents are much more likely than Democrats to say the economy is in poor shape. Solid majorities across the land’south major regions every bit well as all demographic groups say the economic system is in non so good or poor shape. In a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll, 24 percent (3% excellent, 21% good) of adults nationwide felt positively about the US economy, while 74 percent (36% non then adept, 38% poor) expressed negative views.
Six in ten likely voters say they are following news virtually the 2022 governor’s race very (25%) or adequately (35%) closely—a share that has risen from half just a month ago (17% very, 33% fairly). This finding is somewhat similar to October 2018, when 68 percent said this (28% very, 40% closely) a month before the previous gubernatorial election. Today, majorities across partisan, demographic, and regional groups say they are following news about the gubernatorial ballot either very or fairly closely. The shares saying they are following the news very closely is highest among residents in Republican districts (39%), Republicans (xxx%), whites (29%), and adults with incomes of $40,000 to $79,999 (29%). Older likely voters (27%) are slightly more than probable than younger likely voters (21%) to say they are following the news closely.
Democratic incumbent Gavin Newsom is ahead of Republican Brian Dahle (55% to 36%) among likely voters, while few say they would not vote, would vote for neither, or don’t know who they would vote for in the governor’s race. The share supporting the reelection of the governor was similar a month ago (58% Newsom, 31% Dahle). Today, Newsom enjoys the support of most Democrats (91%), while well-nigh Republicans (86%) back up Dahle; Newsom has an border over Dahle amongst contained likely voters (47% Newsom, 37% Dahle). Across the state’s regions, two in iii in the San Francisco Bay Expanse and Los Angeles support Newsom, as do nearly half in the Inland Empire and Orange/San Diego; probable voters in the Central Valley are split. Newsom leads in all demographic groups, with the exception of men (45% Newsom, 44% Dahle) and those with a high schoolhouse diploma only (46% Newsom, 49% Dahle). The share supporting Newsom grows as educational attainment increases (46% loftier schoolhouse but, 56% some higher, threescore% college graduates), while it decreases with rise income (64% less than $twoscore,000, 56% $twoscore,000 to $79,999, 52% $lxxx,000 or more).
A solid majority of likely voters (62%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the Nov 8 election, while about three in 10 (32%) are non satisfied. Shares expressing satisfaction have increased somewhat from a month ago (53%) and were similar prior to the 2018 gubernatorial election (60% October 2018). Today, a solid bulk of Democrats (79%) and independents (61%) say they are satisfied, compared to fewer than half of Republicans (44%). Majorities across demographic groups say they are satisfied, and notably, women (68%) are more probable than men (56%) to say this. Majorities across the country’s regions say they are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the upcoming gubernatorial election.
State Propositions 26, 27, and thirty
In the upcoming November viii election, at that place volition be 7 state propositions for voters. Due to fourth dimension constraints, our survey simply asked about three ballot measures: Propositions 26, 27, and 30. For each, we read the proposition number, ballot, and election label. Two of the state ballot measures were too included in the September survey (Propositions 27 and 30), while Proposition 26 was non.
If the election were held today, 34 percent of likely voters would vote “yes,” 57 percent would vote “no,” and ix percent are unsure of how they would vote on Proffer 26—Allows In-Person Roulette, Dice, Game, Sports Wagering on Tribal Lands. This mensurate would permit in-person sports betting at racetracks and tribal casinos, requiring that racetracks and casinos offer sports betting make sure payments to the state to support state regulatory costs. It also allows roulette and die games at tribal casinos and adds a new way to enforce certain state gambling laws. At that place is partisan understanding on Prop 26: fewer than four in ten Democrats, Republicans, and independents would vote “yeah.” Moreover, less than a bulk across all regions and demographic groups—with the exception of likely voters ages eighteen to 44 (51% yes, 44% no)—would vote “yeah.”
If the election were held today, 26 percent of likely voters would vote “yes,” 67 percent would vote “no,” and eight per centum are unsure of how they would vote on Proffer 27—Allows Online and Mobile Sports Wagering Outside Tribal Lands. This citizens’ initiative would allow Indian tribes and affiliated businesses to operate online and mobile sports wagering outside tribal lands. Strong majorities across partisan groups would vote “no” on Prop 27. The share voting “yes” has decreased since a month ago (34% September). Today, fewer than three in x across partisan groups would vote “yep” on Prop 27. Moreover, fewer than 4 in x across regions, gender, racial/ethnic, education, and income groups would vote “yep.” Likely voters ages 18 to 44 (41%) are far more than likely than older likely voters ages 45 and in a higher place (19%) to say they would vote “yes.”
If the election were held today, 41 per centum of likely voters would vote “yes,” 52 percent would vote “no,” and 7 percentage are unsure of how they would vote on Proposition 30—Provides Funding for Programs to Reduce Air Pollution and Prevent Wildfires by Increasing Tax on Personal Income over $2 Million. This citizens’ initiative would increase taxes on Californians earning more than than $2 million annually and allocate that taxation revenue to zip-emission vehicle purchase incentives, vehicle charging stations, and wildfire prevention. The share saying “yes” on Prop thirty has decreased from 55 percent in our September survey (note: since September, Governor Newsom has been featured in “no on Prop 30” commercials). Today, unlike Prop 26 and Prop 27, partisan opinions are divided on Prop thirty: 61 percent of Democrats would vote “aye,” compared to far fewer Republicans (15%) and independents (38%). Across regions, and among men and women, support falls short of a bulk (36% men, 45% women). Fewer than half across racial/ethnic groups say they would vote “yes” (39% whites, 42% Latinos, 46% other racial/ethnic groups). Just over half of probable voters with incomes under $40,000 (52%) would vote “aye,” compared to fewer in higher-income groups (42% $40,000 to $79,999, 36% $eighty,000 or more). Nearly half of likely voters ages 18 to 44 (49%) would vote “aye,” compared to 37 pct of older likely voters.
Fewer than half of likely voters say the outcome of each of these state propositions is very important to them. Today, 21 percentage of likely voters say the effect of Prop 26 is very of import, 31 pct say the outcome of Prop 27 is very important, and 42 percent say the outcome of Prop xxx is very important. The shares proverb the outcomes are very of import to them have remained similar to a month ago for Prop 27 (29%) and Prop xxx (42%). Today, when information technology comes to the importance of the outcome of Prop 26, ane in 4 or fewer across partisan groups say it is very important to them. Virtually one in 3 across partisan groups say the upshot of Prop 27 is very important to them. Fewer than one-half beyond partisan groups say the outcome of Prop xxx is very important to them.
When asked how they would vote if the 2022 election for the US House of Representatives were held today, 56 percent of probable voters say they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate, while 39 percentage would vote for or lean toward the Republican candidate. In September, a similar share of likely voters preferred the Democratic candidate (60% Democrat/lean Democrat, 34% Republican/lean Republican). Today, overwhelming majorities of partisans support their party’southward candidate, while independents are divided (l% Democrat/lean Democrat, 44% Republican/lean Republican). Democratic candidates are preferred by a 26-point margin in Democratic-held districts, while Republican candidates are preferred by a 23-point margin in Republican-held districts. In the ten competitive California districts every bit divers past the Cook Political Study, the Democratic candidate is preferred past a 22-point margin (54% to 32%).
Abortion is another prominent effect in this election. When asked about the importance of abortion rights, 61 per centum of probable voters say the upshot is very important in determining their vote for Congress and some other 20 percent say it is somewhat important; just 17 percent say information technology is not besides or non at all important. Among partisans, an overwhelming majority of Democrats (78%) and 55 percent of independents say it is very of import, compared to 43 percent of Republicans. Majorities across regions and all demographic groups—with the exception of men (49% very important)—say ballgame rights are very important when making their choice amongst candidates for Congress.
With the controlling political party in Congress hanging in the rest, 51 percent of likely voters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress this year; another 29 pct are somewhat enthusiastic while xix percent are either not too or non at all enthusiastic. In October 2018 earlier the last midterm election, a similar 53 pct of likely voters were extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress (25% extremely, 28% very, 28% somewhat, 10% not too, 8% non at all). Today, Democrats and Republicans have almost equal levels of enthusiasm, while independents are much less likely to be extremely or very enthusiastic. Half or more beyond regions are at least very enthusiastic, with the exceptions of probable voters in Los Angeles (44%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (43%). At to the lowest degree half across demographic groups are highly enthusiastic, with the exceptions of likely voters earning $40,000 to $79,999 annually (48%), women (47%), Latinos (43%), those with a high school diploma or less (42%), renters (42%), and eighteen- to 44-year-olds (37%).
Republic and the Political Divide
Equally Californians prepare to vote in the upcoming midterm election, fewer than half of adults and probable voters are satisfied with the way commonwealth is working in the U.s.a.—and few are very satisfied. Satisfaction was college in our Feb survey when 53 percent of adults and 48 percent of likely voters were satisfied with democracy in America. Today, half of Democrats and about iv in ten independents are satisfied, compared to almost one in v Republicans. Notably, four in ten Republicans are not at all satisfied. Across regions, half of residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (52%) and the Inland Empire (l%) are satisfied, compared to fewer elsewhere. Across demographic groups, fewer than half are satisfied, with the exception of Latinos (56%), those with a high school caste or less (55%), and those making less than $twoscore,000 (53%).
In addition to the lack of satisfaction with the way commonwealth is working, Californians are divided about whether Americans of different political positions can nonetheless come up together and work out their differences. Forty-ix per centum are optimistic, while 46 percentage are pessimistic. Optimism has been similar in more recent years, but has decreased vii points since we first asked this question in September 2017 (56%). In September 2020, but before the 2020 general election, Californians were also divided (47% optimistic, 49% pessimistic).
Today, in a rare moment of bipartisan agreement, about four in ten Democrats, Republicans, and independents are optimistic that Americans of unlike political views will be able to come together. Across regions, about half in Orange/San Diego, the Inland Empire, and the San Francisco Bay Area are optimistic. Beyond demographic groups, only the following groups accept a bulk or more who are optimistic: African Americans and Latinos (61% each), those with a high school diploma or less (63%), and those with household incomes under $40,000 (61%). Notably, in 2017, half or more across parties, regions, and demographic groups were optimistic.
With about two weeks to go before Governor Newsom’s bid for reelection, a majority of Californians (54%) and likely voters (52%) approve of the manner he is handling his job, while fewer disapprove (33% adults, 45% likely voters). Approval was nigh identical in September (52% adults, 55% likely voters) and has been fifty percentage or more than since January 2020. Today, about eight in ten Democrats—compared to about one-half of independents and about 1 in 10 Republicans—corroborate of Governor Newsom. Half or more across regions approve of Newsom, except in the Fundamental Valley (42%). Beyond demographic groups, nigh half or more approve of how Governor Newsom is handling his chore.
With all 80 country assembly positions and half of state senate seats upwards for election, fewer than half of adults (49%) and likely voters (43%) approve of the style that the California Legislature is handling its task. Views are deeply divided along partisan lines; approval is highest in the San Francisco Bay Expanse and lowest in Orange/San Diego. Well-nigh half across racial/ethnic groups approve, and blessing is much higher amid younger Californians.
Majorities of California adults (53%) and probable voters (52%) approve of the mode President Biden is handling his job, while fewer disapprove (43% adults, 47% probable voters). Approval is like to September (53% adults and likely voters), and Biden’s approval rating amongst adults has been at fifty percent or higher since we first asked this question in Jan 2021. Today, near eight in ten Democrats approve of Biden’s job functioning, compared to most four in ten independents and one in 10 Republicans. Approving is higher in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles than in the Inland Empire, Orange/San Diego, and the Primal Valley. Nearly half or more across demographic groups approve of President Biden, with the exception of those with some higher education (44%).
Approving of Congress remains depression, with fewer than four in ten adults (37%) and probable voters (29%) blessing. Approval of Congress among adults has been below forty percentage for all of 2022 later on seeing a cursory run above 40 percent for all of 2021. Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to approve of Congress. Fewer than half across regions and demographic groups approve of Congress.
United states of america Senator Alex Padilla is on the California ballot twice this November—one time for the remainder of Vice President Harris’s term and once for reelection. Senator Padilla has the approving of 46 pct of adults and 48 percent of likely voters (adults: 26% disapprove, 29% don’t know; likely voters: 31% disapprove, 22% don’t know). Approval in March was at 44 pct for adults and 39 percent for probable voters. Today, Padilla’south approval rating is much higher among Democrats than independents and Republicans. Across regions, about half in the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, and the Inland Empire approve of the Us senator, compared to four in ten in Orangish/San Diego and one in three in the Central Valley. Across demographic groups, about half or more approve amongst women, younger adults, African Americans, Asian Americans, and Latinos. Views are similar beyond education and income groups, with just fewer than half approving.
United states of america Senator Dianne Feinstein—who is non on the California election this November—has the approval of 41 percent of adults and likely voters (adults: 42% disapprove, 17% don’t know; likely voters: 52% disapprove, 7% don’t know). Approval in March was at 41 percent for adults and 36 per centum for probable voters. Today, Feinstein’s approving rating is far higher among Democrats and independents than Republicans. Beyond regions, approving reaches a majority only in the San Francisco Bay Area. Across demographic groups, approval reaches a majority only among African Americans
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